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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 5/3/2020

2020-03-05 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,800 2,990 3,464 3,979 150 -665 3,832
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,930 3,379 3,979 150 -750 3,880
Costal Shandong 5,670 2,920 3,384 3,979 150 -745 3,863
Jiangsu 5,710 2,840 3,329 3,979 150 -801 3,853
Guangdong 5,950 2,740 3,295 3,979 150 -834 3,796
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,800 2,990 3,464 3,952 150 -638 3,797
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,930 3,379 3,952 150 -723 3,846
Costal Shandong 5,670 2,920 3,384 3,952 150 -718 3,829
Jiangsu 5,710 2,840 3,329 3,952 150 -774 3,819
Guangdong 5,950 2,740 3,295 3,952 150 -807 3,761
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,800 2,990 3,522 3,092 150 280 2,635
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,930 3,435 3,092 150 193 2,686
Costal Shandong 5,670 2,920 3,441 3,092 150 199 2,668
Jiangsu 5,710 2,840 3,386 3,092 150 144 2,658
Guangdong 5,950 2,740 3,355 3,092 150 113 2,597
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,800 2,990 3,406 3,020 150 236 2,691
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,930 3,323 3,020 150 153 2,737
Costal Shandong 5,670 2,920 3,327 3,020 150 157 2,721
Jiangsu 5,710 2,840 3,271 3,020 150 101 2,712
Guangdong 5,950 2,740 3,236 3,020 150 66 2,657
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,800 2,990 3,435 3,500 150 -215 3,262
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,930 3,351 3,500 150 -299 3,309
Costal Shandong 5,670 2,920 3,356 3,500 150 -294 3,292
Jiangsu 5,710 2,840 3,300 3,500 150 -350 3,283
Guangdong 5,950 2,740 3,265 3,500 150 -385 3,227
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,950 3,140 3,464 3,500 160 -196 3,385
Dalian, Liaoning 5,800 2,990 3,320 3,620 160 -460 3,565
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,930 3,240 3,640 160 -560 3,630
Boxing, Shandong 5,680 2,920 3,245 3,660 160 -575 3,639
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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