Today (Mar. 5), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures were bolstered to rise last night, as Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry confirmed to increase export duties for soybeans to 33% from current 30%. But meal futures slightly swing on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily go ups and downs by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2750-2920 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2920, Shandong 2880-2900, Jiangsu 2830-2840, Dongguan 2750-2770, and Guangxi 2750-2780.) Chinese importers are still purchasing South American soybeans due to handsome crush margins at present. Meanwhile, under the spread of the epidemic globally, the decline in demand for meat products will also affect the breeding. And the demand from aquaculture is typically slack under cold weather. Therefore, there is limited rises for soybean meal prices. However, soybean arrivals at domestic ports will be relatively small in March, and oil mills have begun to cut down operation rates this week. Soybean meal stocks are low, so that mills are just carrying out contract signed previously. Besides, farmers are active making hog replenishment due to current considerable margins, so the demand for soybean meal will be rising with the recovery in hog amount. And the demand has been picking up now that 80% of feed enterprises have resumed work. In conclusion, it will take time to abate the tight supply in soybean meal market, so prices will probably maintain a strong trend in March.  

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price keeps steady with slight declines today, of which it partly settles down 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,290-2,390 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,300, flat; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,370). The crush margins of Brazilian soybean are still considerable, attracting Chinese buyers’ purchase. And the import for U.S. soybeans and porks are likely to increase in later period as well. Besides, the demand for meats goes down on account of the spread of the novel coronavirus epidemic worldwide, which will also affect breeding industry. Also, the demand from aquaculture has been in a slack season. Thus, meals prices are curbed. But rapeseed is in short supply amid continuous tensions between China and Canada, so the operation rate in oils mills is low, which leads rapeseed meal stocks to stay at a low level. In addition, soybean arrivals in March only reach 4.82 mln tonnes, so many oil mills have a plan of halting the crush. And weekly soybean crush will decrease to 1.60-1.65 mln tonnes over the next two weeks. In consequence, the price declines of rapeseed meal are limited, and short-term prices may fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are mostly stable and some mixed today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-12,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,300 yuan/tonne, a partial decline of 100 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,300-12,900 yuan/tonne, a partial rise of 200 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 12,800-13,100 yuan/tonne, a partial decline of 100 yuan/tonne. Currently, the consumption of fishmeal is slow, so the demand is dismal when downstream buyers are taking hand-to-mouth buying. Port stocks are hard to digest, while fresh goods are arriving at ports, so total stocks are rising at ports. Traders are under pressure and cutting prices to attract purchases, which is bearish to the market. But according to market sources, new fishmeal is of higher quality, so traders are trying to prop up the price, which may limit its declines. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to be steady with a slight decline in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 60,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 35,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,420 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are stable today. More than 80% of feed enterprises have returned to work. And many cottonseed oil factories have back orders. Accordingly, cottonseed meal is in low inventory, which is likely to bring its market support. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by an inversion of price spread between soybean meal and it. Also, the novel coronavirus epidemic is spreading around the world, lowering demand for meats and affecting breeding industry. Likewise, the demand from aquaculture has been in an off season. Consequently, the demand outlook of meals is worrisome, and cottonseed meal market is curbed, and there may be not big fluctuations in a short term.