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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 6/3/2020

2020-03-06 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,780 2,980 3,452 3,952 150 -650 3,802
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 2,920 3,361 3,952 150 -741 3,858
Costal Shandong 5,620 2,900 3,359 3,952 150 -743 3,841
Jiangsu 5,730 2,840 3,332 3,952 150 -770 3,814
Guangdong 5,900 2,750 3,294 3,952 150 -809 3,773
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,780 2,980 3,452 3,925 150 -623 3,768
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 2,920 3,361 3,925 150 -714 3,823
Costal Shandong 5,620 2,900 3,359 3,925 150 -716 3,807
Jiangsu 5,730 2,840 3,332 3,925 150 -743 3,780
Guangdong 5,900 2,750 3,294 3,925 150 -782 3,739
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,780 2,980 3,510 3,071 150 289 2,614
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 2,920 3,417 3,071 150 196 2,672
Costal Shandong 5,620 2,900 3,415 3,071 150 194 2,654
Jiangsu 5,730 2,840 3,390 3,071 150 169 2,627
Guangdong 5,900 2,750 3,353 3,071 150 132 2,584
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,780 2,980 3,395 2,997 150 248 2,667
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 2,920 3,306 2,997 150 159 2,719
Costal Shandong 5,620 2,900 3,303 2,997 150 156 2,703
Jiangsu 5,730 2,840 3,275 2,997 150 128 2,678
Guangdong 5,900 2,750 3,235 2,997 150 88 2,639
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,780 2,980 3,424 3,500 150 -227 3,267
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 2,920 3,334 3,500 150 -316 3,321
Costal Shandong 5,620 2,900 3,331 3,500 150 -319 3,304
Jiangsu 5,730 2,840 3,304 3,500 150 -346 3,278
Guangdong 5,900 2,750 3,264 3,500 150 -386 3,239
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,930 3,130 3,453 3,500 160 -207 3,389
Dalian, Liaoning 5,780 2,980 3,309 3,620 160 -471 3,569
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 2,920 3,224 3,640 160 -576 3,640
Boxing, Shandong 5,680 2,910 3,237 3,660 160 -583 3,639
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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