China’s Soybean Crush Monthly (Feb, 2020)

2020-03-06 www.cofeed.com

Soybean crush in February in China

According to final detailed investigation and verification by Cofeed, soybean crush in oil mills in February totals 6,324,700 tonnes (meal 4,996,513 tonnes and oil 1,201,693 tonnes), up 411,700 tonnes by 6.96% from 5,913,000 tonnes in January, and up by 71.53% from 3,687,100 tonnes of the same period last year.

Soybean crush nationwide totals 34,156,400 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/2020 (from Oct. 1st, 2019), up 91,800 tonnes by 0.26% from 34,064,600 tonnes in 2018/2019. In calendar 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush totals 12,237,700 tonnes, up 1,430,600 tonnes by 13.23% from 10,807,100 tonnes in 2019.

Soybean Crush in February in China by Region (tonne)
Ranking	Region	1st-7th	8-14th	15th-21st	22-28th	29th	Total
1	Shandong	156200	293000	335800	369600	47800	1202400
2	Jiangsu	123000	263500	300500	371000	47000	1105000
3	Guangdong	93400	221800	246500	218000	31000	810700
4	Liaoning	107500	178800	202300	193300	22400	704300
5	Guangxi	55000	126000	177600	152600	21800	533000
6	Hebei	88000	101000	108000	133000	13000	443000
7	Tianjin	47500	97500	129500	129000	15000	418500
8	Fujian	24000	81500	72500	72200	11000	261200
9	Sichuan	28100	41300	41300	31900	3500	146100
10	Zhejiang	0	19500	57500	62500	5500	145000
11	Henan	25400	39200	33600	28200	3000	129400
12	Shaanxi	15200	30800	30800	30800	4400	112000
13	Jilin	20000	28000	0	24000	4000	76000
14	Chongqing	0	16800	16800	16800	2400	52800
15	Anhui	0	12500	17500	16500	1500	48000
16	Hunan	1000	12400	19600	8800	1000	42800
17	Heilongjiang	7000	7000	7000	9000	3000	33000
18	Jiangxi	0	0	9000	10500	1500	21000
19	Shanghai	0	0	0	17500	2500	20000
20	Hubei	0	5000	7000	7000	0	19000
21	Inner Mongolia	0	0	1000	0	500	1500
22	Xinjiang	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Shanxi	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total	791300	1575600	1813800	1902200	241800	6324700
Remarks: Above is the final data after verification.

Soybean imports in China

China’s Customs: Soybean Imports in China by Month (0’000 tonnes)

M/Y	2019	2020
Jan	737.70	717.60
Feb	446.00	522.10
Mar	492.00	482.50
Apr	764.00	750.00
May	736.00	810.00
Jun	651.32	870.00
Jul	864.03	900.00
Aug	948.07
Sept	819.66
Oct	618.14
Nov	827.76
Dec	954.24
Total	8858.92	4154.30

Remarks: Imports from January to July in 2020 were surveyed and estimated by Cofeed

China’s Customs has issued a notice that over these years, the import and export data of foreign trade in January and February usually have significant differences affected by the Lunar New Year, and the nominal growth of a single month is unable to reflect the actual situation in foreign trade. With the approval of officers in the General Ministry of Customs, the import and export data for January and February will not be released separately from 2020, instead, it will be merged and released in March.

According to Cofeed, there were 80 cargoes with 5.221 mln tonnes of soybeans arriving at domestic port in February 2020. And the arrivals of imported soybean at domestic ports forecast at 4.825 mln tonnes of 74 cargoes in March. Meanwhile, the initial estimate is 7.50 mln tonnes for April, 8.10 mln tonnes for May, 8.70 mln tonnes for June and 9.00 mln tonnes for July. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.

Monthly carryover stocks at ports in China

The rally of soybean crush coupled with less arrivals of soybean at ports have resulted in a decrease of soybean stocks in February. By the end of February, domestic imported soybean stocks total 4,916,200 tonnes, down by 351,200 tonnes or 6.66% from 5,267,400 tonnes in January and down by 12.42% from 5,614,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As the arrivals of soybean at ports forecast only 4,825,000 tonnes for March, the soybean stocks may continue to go down in March.

Soybean crush margins

Soybean Crush Margins in China (yuan/tonne)
Date	U.S. soybean	Bra. soybean	Arg. soybean	Distributed	Domestic
Feb. 3	-758	286	212	-277	-244
Feb. 4	-767	281	208	-273	-231
Feb. 5	-688	360	286	-195	-215
Feb. 6	-673	376	300	-180	-220
Feb. 7	-647	345	238	-180	-233
Feb. 10	-539	382	277	-130	-175
Feb. 11	-565	360	243	-157	-185
Feb. 12	-546	404	269	-143	-170
Feb. 13	-620	336	215	-182	-124
Feb. 14	-645	314	195	-191	-186
Feb. 17	-636	290	211	-191	-183
Feb. 19	-696	240	168	-231	-178
Feb. 20	-752	224	157	-243	-226
Feb. 21	-738	239	172	-232	-199
Feb. 24	-770	206	141	-276	-239
Feb. 25	-736	232	171	-307	-254
Feb. 26	-808	189	113	-328	-247
Feb. 27	-776	194	105	-316	-234
Feb. 28	-791	180	116	-322	-270

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