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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 9/3/2020

2020-03-09 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,550 2,950 3,385 3,915 150 -680 3,847
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400 2,880 3,301 3,915 150 -764 3,835
Costal Shandong 5,450 2,860 3,295 3,915 150 -770 3,818
Jiangsu 5,520 2,850 3,300 3,915 150 -765 3,811
Guangdong 5,550 2,710 3,195 3,915 150 -870 3,727
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,550 2,950 3,385 3,889 150 -654 3,778
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400 2,880 3,301 3,889 150 -738 3,814
Costal Shandong 5,450 2,860 3,295 3,889 150 -744 3,802
Jiangsu 5,520 2,850 3,300 3,889 150 -739 3,785
Guangdong 5,550 2,710 3,195 3,889 150 -844 3,778
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,550 2,950 3,441 3,042 150 249 2,635
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400 2,880 3,355 3,042 150 163 2,673
Costal Shandong 5,450 2,860 3,349 3,042 150 157 2,661
Jiangsu 5,520 2,850 3,356 3,042 150 164 2,643
Guangdong 5,550 2,710 3,251 3,042 150 59 2,635
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,550 2,950 3,330 2,987 150 193 2,706
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400 2,880 3,247 2,987 150 110 2,741
Costal Shandong 5,450 2,860 3,240 2,987 150 103 2,729
Jiangsu 5,520 2,850 3,245 2,987 150 108 2,713
Guangdong 5,550 2,710 3,140 2,987 150 3 2,706
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,550 2,950 3,357 3,500 150 -293 3,321
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400 2,880 3,274 3,500 150 -376 3,356
Costal Shandong 5,450 2,860 3,268 3,500 150 -382 3,344
Jiangsu 5,520 2,850 3,273 3,500 150 -377 3,328
Guangdong 5,550 2,710 3,168 3,500 150 -482 3,321
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,700 3,100 3,392 3,500 160 -268 3,435
Dalian, Liaoning 5,550 2,950 3,248 3,620 160 -532 3,615
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,400 2,880 3,168 3,640 160 -632 3,670
Boxing, Shandong 5,520 2,860 3,171 3,660 160 -649 3,671
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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