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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 10/3/2020

2020-03-10 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,391 3,846 150 -605 3,716
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,880 3,316 3,846 150 -680 3,740
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,860 3,304 3,846 150 -692 3,735
Jiangsu 5,550 2,840 3,298 3,846 150 -698 3,723
Guangdong 5,600 2,780 3,260 3,846 150 -736 3,711
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,391 3,812 150 -571 3,673
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,880 3,316 3,812 150 -646 3,697
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,860 3,304 3,812 150 -658 3,692
Jiangsu 5,550 2,840 3,298 3,812 150 -664 3,680
Guangdong 5,600 2,780 3,260 3,812 150 -702 3,668
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,447 2,987 150 310 2,558
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,880 3,371 2,987 150 234 2,584
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,860 3,359 2,987 150 222 2,578
Jiangsu 5,550 2,840 3,354 2,987 150 217 2,566
Guangdong 5,600 2,780 3,316 2,987 150 179 2,553
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,335 2,935 150 250 2,634
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,880 3,262 2,935 150 177 2,656
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,860 3,249 2,935 150 164 2,652
Jiangsu 5,550 2,840 3,243 2,935 150 158 2,641
Guangdong 5,600 2,780 3,204 2,935 150 119 2,629
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,363 3,500 150 -287 3,314
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,880 3,289 3,500 150 -361 3,337
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,860 3,277 3,500 150 -373 3,332
Jiangsu 5,550 2,840 3,270 3,500 150 -380 3,321
Guangdong 5,600 2,780 3,232 3,500 150 -418 3,309
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,730 3,100 3,397 3,500 160 -263 3,429
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,253 3,620 160 -527 3,609
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,880 3,181 3,640 160 -619 3,654
Boxing, Shandong 5,520 2,860 3,171 3,660 160 -649 3,671
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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