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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/3/2020

2020-03-11 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,391 3,883 150 -642 3,763
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,920 3,348 3,883 150 -685 3,787
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,880 3,320 3,883 150 -713 3,782
Jiangsu 5,530 2,830 3,286 3,883 150 -747 3,775
Guangdong 5,500 2,780 3,241 3,883 150 -792 3,782
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,391 3,849 150 -608 3,720
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,920 3,348 3,849 150 -651 3,744
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,880 3,320 3,849 150 -679 3,739
Jiangsu 5,530 2,830 3,286 3,849 150 -713 3,732
Guangdong 5,500 2,780 3,241 3,849 150 -758 3,739
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,447 3,022 150 275 2,603
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,920 3,403 3,022 150 231 2,628
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,880 3,375 3,022 150 203 2,623
Jiangsu 5,530 2,830 3,342 3,022 150 170 2,615
Guangdong 5,500 2,780 3,296 3,022 150 124 2,623
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,335 2,960 150 225 2,665
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,920 3,293 2,960 150 183 2,688
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,880 3,265 2,960 150 155 2,684
Jiangsu 5,530 2,830 3,231 2,960 150 121 2,677
Guangdong 5,500 2,780 3,186 2,960 150 76 2,684
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,363 3,500 150 -287 3,314
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,920 3,321 3,500 150 -329 3,337
Costal Shandong 5,500 2,880 3,293 3,500 150 -357 3,332
Jiangsu 5,530 2,830 3,259 3,500 150 -391 3,325
Guangdong 5,500 2,780 3,214 3,500 150 -436 3,332
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,730 3,100 3,397 3,500 160 -263 3,429
Dalian, Liaoning 5,580 2,950 3,253 3,620 160 -527 3,609
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,480 2,920 3,213 3,640 160 -587 3,654
Boxing, Shandong 5,420 2,880 3,171 3,660 160 -649 3,691
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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