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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 12/3/2020

2020-03-12 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,380 2,930 3,337 3,878 150 -691 3,805
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,280 2,900 3,294 3,878 150 -734 3,829
Costal Shandong 5,290 2,860 3,265 3,878 150 -764 3,826
Jiangsu 5,320 2,800 3,223 3,878 150 -805 3,819
Guangdong 5,450 2,780 3,232 3,878 150 -796 3,788
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,380 2,930 3,337 3,843 150 -656 3,761
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,280 2,900 3,294 3,843 150 -699 3,785
Costal Shandong 5,290 2,860 3,265 3,843 150 -729 3,782
Jiangsu 5,320 2,800 3,223 3,843 150 -770 3,775
Guangdong 5,450 2,780 3,232 3,843 150 -761 3,744
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,380 2,930 3,391 3,018 150 223 2,648
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,280 2,900 3,347 3,018 150 179 2,673
Costal Shandong 5,290 2,860 3,317 3,018 150 149 2,671
Jiangsu 5,320 2,800 3,276 3,018 150 108 2,663
Guangdong 5,450 2,780 3,286 3,018 150 118 2,630
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,380 2,930 3,283 2,939 150 194 2,684
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,280 2,900 3,241 2,939 150 152 2,707
Costal Shandong 5,290 2,860 3,212 2,939 150 123 2,705
Jiangsu 5,320 2,800 3,170 2,939 150 81 2,698
Guangdong 5,450 2,780 3,177 2,939 150 88 2,668
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,380 2,930 3,310 3,500 150 -340 3,360
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,280 2,900 3,268 3,500 150 -382 3,384
Costal Shandong 5,290 2,860 3,238 3,500 150 -412 3,381
Jiangsu 5,320 2,800 3,196 3,500 150 -454 3,374
Guangdong 5,450 2,780 3,204 3,500 150 -446 3,344
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,530 3,080 3,349 3,500 160 -311 3,469
Dalian, Liaoning 5,380 2,930 3,205 3,620 160 -575 3,649
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,280 2,900 3,165 3,640 160 -635 3,694
Boxing, Shandong 5,270 2,860 3,131 3,660 160 -689 3,721
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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