Today (Mar. 13), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: Driven by the novel coronavirus, US stock market crashed to post a biggest single-day loss since 1987 and triggered circuit breaker for twice this week. US soybean futures fell sharply on Thursday, weighed on by the collapse in financial markets. But meal futures shrug off its early loss to move higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, as investors book profits in buying meals. Soybean meal spot prices increase by 10-40 yuan/tonne, with some purchases upon low-level forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 2810-2880 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2880, Shandong 2850-2860, Jiangsu 2840-2870, Dongguan 2820-2850, and Guangxi 2830-2860.) Not a small number of mills have gone into downtime this month, and most mills are mainly making delivery of contracts as they have low soybean meal in storage and have sold out spot goods. Short-term demand for soybean meal slightly rebounds, for farmers are rushing to make hog replenishment due to considerable breeding margins and over an 80% of feed enterprises have resumed work. In addition, oil prices have been crashing recently, so that mills are trying to prop up prices. However, China’s soybean imports are forecast to reach to 24.5 mln tonnes in the second quarter due to good crush margins for Brazilian soybeans. As the epidemic is spreading across many countries and regions, the decline in demand for meat products will also affect the breeding. Domestic feed millers have seen an over 20% fall in March sales. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s secretary has been tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a media report in Brazil. The market is concerned about the transportation in Brazil if the epidemic wrecks havoc there, for its soybean shipment may come to a standstill. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on low-level forward basis, but not to chase after excessively high spot prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price rises today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,240-2,310 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,250; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,280, up 10). Rapeseed is in short supply amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so the operation rate in oils mills is low and soybean meal inventories stay at a low level. As there are not many soybeans arriving at port this month, many oil mills have halted the production, resulting in a sharp decline in soybean crush. Besides, more than 80% of feed enterprises have returned to work, so the demand picks up, boosting meals price. But due to the good crush margins of Brazilian soybean in the second quarter, soybean arrivals from April to June will likely be as high as 24.5 mln tonnes. And the imports for U.S. agricultural products will also increase in later period. Otherwise, the demand for meats goes down on account of the spread of the novel coronavirus epidemic worldwide, which has also affected breeding industry. Also, demand from aquaculture has been in an off season. Therefore, rapeseed meal price is weak in rising and may fluctuate at a narrow range in a short term. Buyers are suggested not to chase up prices too high.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices go stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-12,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,300-12,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 12,800-13,100 yuan/tonne. Peru’s Ministry of Production has initiated an investigation into its marine resources, and insiders expect the country will set its new-season quota at a relatively low level of around 1.0-1.5 mln tonnes, for which traders are optimistic about the market prospect. And some traders are propping up prices as most fishmeal stocks are held at main domestic ports. However, the consumption of fishmeal remains slack at present, so feed enterprises tend to take hand-to-mouth buying. In addition to dismal demand, fresh goods are arriving at ports, sending port stocks mounting higher gradually, so that traders are under selling pressure. In conclusion, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with a strengthening trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 64,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,420 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are stable with some declines of 20-30 yuan/tonne. The price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrow. Besides, the novel coronavirus has impacted breeding industry, for which feed enterprises said that the sales of poultry feed fell above 20% in March. Likewise, the demand from aquaculture also has been in an off season, and factories have not many new orders of cottonseed meal. Consequently, cottonseed meal prices are dampened. But the overall operation rate in cottonseed oil mills is not high. Due to an arbitrage of buying meal and selling oil, meals on DCE today move higher after low opens, and soybean meal spots up by 10-40 yuan/tonne. Thus, the price declines of cottonseed meal are limited. It is expected that short-term cottonseed meal prices may fluctuate weakly.