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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/16/2020

2020-03-16 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,320 2,980 3,365 3,803 150 -588 3,724
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,250 2,950 3,328 3,803 150 -625 3,741
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,940 3,324 3,803 150 -629 3,736
Jiangsu 5,350 2,900 3,308 3,803 150 -646 3,717
Guangdong 5,350 2,890 3,300 3,803 150 -653 3,717
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,320 2,980 3,365 3,768 150 -553 3,680
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,250 2,950 3,328 3,768 150 -590 3,697
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,940 3,324 3,768 150 -594 3,692
Jiangsu 5,350 2,900 3,308 3,768 150 -611 3,673
Guangdong 5,350 2,890 3,300 3,768 150 -618 3,673
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,320 2,980 3,418 2,948 150 320 2,575
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,250 2,950 3,381 2,948 150 283 2,592
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,940 3,377 2,948 150 279 2,587
Jiangsu 5,350 2,900 3,361 2,948 150 263 2,567
Guangdong 5,350 2,890 3,353 2,948 150 255 2,567
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,320 2,980 3,312 2,867 150 295 2,607
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,250 2,950 3,276 2,867 150 259 2,623
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,940 3,271 2,867 150 254 2,618
Jiangsu 5,350 2,900 3,254 2,867 150 237 2,600
Guangdong 5,350 2,890 3,246 2,867 150 229 2,600
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,320 2,980 3,338 3,500 150 -312 3,374
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,250 2,950 3,302 3,500 150 -348 3,391
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,940 3,298 3,500 150 -352 3,386
Jiangsu 5,350 2,900 3,281 3,500 150 -369 3,367
Guangdong 5,350 2,890 3,273 3,500 150 -377 3,367
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,470 3,130 3,379 3,500 160 -281 3,481
Dalian, Liaoning 5,320 2,980 3,235 3,620 160 -545 3,661
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,250 2,950 3,200 3,640 160 -600 3,700
Boxing, Shandong 5,280 2,960 3,213 3,660 160 -607 3,719
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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