Today (Mar. 16), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: South American farmers were harvesting bumper crops. U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency over the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic. U.S. soybean headed toward an uncertain export prospect as China’s demand was till contained by the African swine fever and the novel epidemic. Therefore, U.S. soybean futures fell further last Friday. But meal futures continue to rise on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, for soybean meal is in tight supply in domestic market. Soybean meal spot prices increase by 40-80 yuan/tonne, with some purchases upon low-level forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 2900-2970 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2970, Shandong 2905-2950, Jiangsu 2900-2920, Dongguan 2950-2960, and Guangxi 2920-2970.) Soybean imports are relatively small in March, and soybean stocks fall by 18% to 2.35 mln tonnes in domestic coastal oil mills this week. Not a minority of oil mills has suspended production this month, and soybean crush declined to 1.47 mln tonnes last week, so that soybean meal stocks also followed to drop by 14% to 440,000 tonnes. Mills now are mainly making delivery of previous contracts as they have no spot goods to sell now. On the other hand, farmers are active making hog replenishment due to considerable breeding margins at present, and a majority of feed enterprises have also resumed work, so the demand for soybean meal is also getting better. These are all bullish factors to meal prices. On the whole, the tight supply picture in soybean meal market may continue until mid-April. Besides, in its most dramatic move, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Sunday announced to cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to near zero and to launch a massive $700 bln quantitative easing program, which may help bolster the commodity market in the short term. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices are forecast to keep range-bound with a strengthening trend. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price rises today, of which it settles up 20-50 yuan/tonne at 2,280-2,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,300, up 50; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,310, up 30). Rapeseed is in short supply amid tensions between China and Canada, so the operation rate in oils mills is low. Though rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas increased to 15,000 tonnes last week, it was down 66% from the same period last year. As there are not many soybeans arriving at port this month, many oil mills have halted the production. Last week, soybean crush dropped by 11% to 1.47 mln tonnes and soybean meal stocks also fell again, supporting meals prices. But due to the good crush margins of Brazilian soybean, soybean arrivals from April to June will likely be as high as 24.5 mln tonnes. And the imports for U.S. agricultural products will also increase in later period. Otherwise, the demand for meats goes down on account of the spread of the novel coronavirus epidemic worldwide, which has also affected breeding industry. Also, demand from aquaculture has been in an off season. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will be weak in rising momentum and may fluctuate frequently. Buyers are suggested not to chase up prices too high.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices go stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-12,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,300-12,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 12,800-13,100 yuan/tonne. The consumption of fishmeal remains sluggish in China, so that domestic feed enterprises are not rush in purchasing and just taking hand-to-mouth buying. Fishmeal shipment is slow overall, coupled with fresh goods arriving at ports, so port stocks keep increasing. Traders are under selling pressure, which is bearish to the market. However, Peru’s Ministry of Production has initiated an investigation into its marine resources to determine the fishing quota, and insiders expect the country will set its new-season quota at a relatively low level of around 1.0-1.5 mln tonnes; hence, traders are optimistic about the market prospect. In conclusion, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 64,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,420 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mostly decrease by 10-100 yuan/tonne, while a few prices increase by 20-30 yuan/tonne. The price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrow. Besides, the novel coronavirus has impacted breeding industry, for which feed enterprises said that the sales of poultry feed fell above 20% in March. Likewise, the demand from aquaculture also has been in an off season, and factories have not many new orders of cottonseed meal. Consequently, cottonseed meal prices are dampened. But the overall operation rate in cottonseed oil mills is not high. In addition, soybean meal prices rise by 40-80 yuan/tonne today amid a tight supply, which boosts some cottonseed meal prices. Thus, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal prices may move sideways with fluctuations. Buyers can make small replenishment on the dips but remain cautious in chasing up price.