Price: Imported soybean stocks at ports are low at ports, and it is said that stocks for trading at Shandong port have fallen to 29,000 tonnes. Moreover, domestic soybean prices keep firm at present. Both these factors continue to support the market. However, all agencies have raised production estimates for Brazilian soybeans. Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest bumper soybeans. Meanwhile, Chinese importers have bought at least 30-35 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans in the first four days this week, after a total of over 40 cargoes last week. Therefore, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to stay at a narrow range in the short term. Besides, the market is concerned about the transportation in Brazil if the epidemic wrecks havoc there, for its soybean shipments may get affected. 

Crush: As operation rates further decline this week (Mar. 7-13), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,471,100 tonnes (meal 1,162,169 tonnes and oil 279,509 tonnes), down 188,200 tonnes or 11.3% from 1,659,300 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 42.28%, down 5.41 percentage points from 47.69% in the previous week. Soybean crush will continue to fall to around 1.40 mln tonnes next week, and the it may rise slightly to 1.48 mln tonnes that following week.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 37,133,114 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 161,571 tonnes or 0.04% from 37,294,685 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 15,106,700 tonnes, up 963,415 tonnes or 6.81% from 14,143,285 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to decrease this week with smaller soybean volume arriving at domestic ports. In the week as of March 13th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 2,414,800 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 468,100 tonnes by 16.24% from 2,882,900 tonnes last week and down by 37.53% from 3,865,700 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean stocks are forecast to continue the decline as soybean imports are lower in March.

 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 13 cargoes with 853,000 tonnes this week, a total of 23 cargoes with 1.503 mln tonnes for March so far. The import is predicted to be 74 cargoes with 4.825 million tonnes for March, 7.30 million tonnes for April, 8.50 mln tonnes for May, 8.70 mln tonnes for June and 9.10 mln tonnes for July. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Mar. 9-13), domestic soybean meal prices are mixed. As of this Friday, the price fluctuates by 10-40 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,810-2,880 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks are fractionally lower this week as soybean crush continues to decline to 1.47 mln tonnes. In the week ending March 13th, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 440,500 tonnes, down 71,900 tonnes by 14.03% from 512,400 tonnes last week and down by 31.58% from 643,900 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks are expected to decline further, for soybean crush will stay at a low level of 1.40 mln and 1.48 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, respectively.

Price:  Domestic soybean oil prices crash this week (Mar 9-13). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 5330-5360 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly down 270-500 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks turn to fall this week with reducing output under a further decline in operation rates. In the week ending March 13th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,392,100 tonnes, down 7,450 tonnes by 0.5% from 1,399,550 tonnes last week, up 407,100 tonnes by 41.33% from 985,000 tonnes last month, and up 81,800 tonnes by 6.24% from 1,310,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,184,400 tonnes.