China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 11, 2020)

2020-03-17 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

As of this Friday (Mar. 13), edible palm oil stock totals 846,600 tonnes at domestic ports, down 5.7% from 898,200 tonnes a week earlier; down 95,600 tonnes or 10.1% from 942,200 tonnes the same period last month; up 92,700 tonnes or 12.3% from 753,900 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 158,150 tonnes, up 2,260 tonnes or 1.4% from 155,890 tonnes last week.

There are less boatloads of palm oil arriving at ports this week. As of this Friday, the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is 563 yuan/tonne, extending by 43 yuan/tonne from 520 yuan/tonne last week. But oils futures fall sharply at home and abroad this week, so some buyers properly purchase palm oil upon the low price. In consequence, the trading of palm oil in market goes better than last week, which totals 37,900 tonnes with an increase of 9,950 tonnes or 35.6% from 27,950 tonnes last week. Thus, domestic edible palm oil stocks continue to drop this week. Additionally, China’s buyers have bought not many cargoes of palm oil due to the poor import profit, so edible palm oil stocks are likely to slide in later period on the whole.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W11	W10	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W11	W10	Change
Tianjin Port	9.5	10.32	-0.82	-34.70%	-34.26%	2.5	1.8	0.7
Hebei	0.4	0.9	-0.5	-50.00%	-33.30%	0.1	0.1	0
Shandong Port	3.6	4.33	-0.73	9.09%	-24.20%	1.025	1.149	-0.124
East China	31.3	33.35	-2.05	-10.60%	30.60%	9.4	10	-0.6
Guangdong	33.18	33.62	-0.44	0.80%	28.80%	2.61	2.29	0.32
Guangxi	2.18	2.55	-0.37	-42.90%	4.80%	0.18	0.25	-0.07
Fujian	4.5	4.75	-0.25	17.50%	18.40%	0	0	0
Total：	84.66	89.82	-5.16	-10.10%	12.30%	15.815	15.589	0.226

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for March this week is 320,000 tonnes and flat from last week (RBD palm olein 200,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); that for April is 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 280,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) and increases by 80,000 tonnes compared to last week; that for May is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) unchanged with last week.

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2020/3/2	Apr.2020	607.5	5101	5034	-67
2020/3/2	Jul.2020	610	5122	5154	32
2020/3/2	Aug.2020	612.5	5142	5154	12
2020/3/3	Apr.2020	602.5	5060	4970	-90
2020/3/3	Aug.2020	612.5	5142	5122	-20
2020/3/4	Apr.2020	610	5095	5052	-43
2020/3/4	May.2020	610	5095	5052	-43
2020/3/4	Jul.2020	620	5177	5228	51
2020/3/4	Aug.2020	620	5177	5228	51
2020/3/5	Apr.2020	660	5510	5200	-310
2020/3/5	May.2020	660	5510	5200	-310
2020/3/5	Aug.2020	660	5510	5342	-168
2020/3/6	Apr.2020	630	5277	5106	-171
2020/3/6	May.2020	630	5277	5106	-171
2020/3/6	Jun.2020	630	5277	5234	-43
2020/3/6	Jul.2020	637.5	5338	5234	-104
2020/3/6	Aug.2020	637.5	5338	5234	-104
2020/3/6	Sep.2020	637.5	5338	5234	-104

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2020/3/9	0
2020/3/10	0
2020/3/11	0
2020/3/12	0
2020/3/13	0

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