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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/17/2020

2020-03-17 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,280 3,000 3,373 3,699 150 -476 3,602
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,230 2,930 3,308 3,699 150 -541 3,614
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,930 3,316 3,699 150 -533 3,605
Jiangsu 5,300 2,900 3,298 3,699 150 -551 3,597
Guangdong 5,320 2,880 3,286 3,699 150 -563 3,593
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,280 3,000 3,373 3,665 150 -442 3,559
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,230 2,930 3,308 3,665 150 -507 3,571
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,930 3,316 3,665 150 -499 3,562
Jiangsu 5,300 2,900 3,298 3,665 150 -517 3,554
Guangdong 5,320 2,880 3,286 3,665 150 -529 3,550
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,280 3,000 3,426 2,878 150 398 2,496
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,230 2,930 3,361 2,878 150 333 2,509
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,930 3,369 2,878 150 341 2,499
Jiangsu 5,300 2,900 3,351 2,878 150 323 2,491
Guangdong 5,320 2,880 3,339 2,878 150 311 2,486
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,280 3,000 3,320 2,801 150 369 2,532
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,230 2,930 3,256 2,801 150 305 2,544
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,930 3,263 2,801 150 312 2,535
Jiangsu 5,300 2,900 3,245 2,801 150 294 2,528
Guangdong 5,320 2,880 3,233 2,801 150 282 2,523
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,280 3,000 3,347 3,500 150 -303 3,384
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,230 2,930 3,282 3,500 150 -368 3,396
Costal Shandong 5,270 2,930 3,290 3,500 150 -360 3,386
Jiangsu 5,300 2,900 3,272 3,500 150 -379 3,379
Guangdong 5,320 2,880 3,259 3,500 150 -391 3,374
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,430 3,150 3,389 3,500 160 -271 3,489
Dalian, Liaoning 5,280 3,000 3,245 3,620 160 -535 3,669
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,230 2,930 3,181 3,640 160 -619 3,704
Boxing, Shandong 5,300 2,960 3,216 3,660 160 -604 3,715
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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