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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/18/2020

2020-03-18 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,430 3,000 3,402 3,728 150 -476 3,603
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,950 3,347 3,728 150 -531 3,622
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,960 3,370 3,728 150 -508 3,603
Jiangsu 5,450 2,970 3,382 3,728 150 -496 3,598
Guangdong 5,400 2,920 3,333 3,728 150 -545 3,610
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,430 3,000 3,402 3,693 150 -441 3,559
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,950 3,347 3,693 150 -496 3,578
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,960 3,370 3,693 150 -473 3,559
Jiangsu 5,450 2,970 3,382 3,693 150 -461 3,554
Guangdong 5,400 2,920 3,333 3,693 150 -510 3,566
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,430 3,000 3,456 2,901 150 405 2,487
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,950 3,401 2,901 150 350 2,508
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,960 3,424 2,901 150 373 2,487
Jiangsu 5,450 2,970 3,436 2,901 150 385 2,482
Guangdong 5,400 2,920 3,387 2,901 150 336 2,495
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,430 3,000 3,347 2,815 150 382 2,516
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,950 3,294 2,815 150 329 2,534
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,960 3,316 2,815 150 351 2,516
Jiangsu 5,450 2,970 3,327 2,815 150 362 2,511
Guangdong 5,400 2,920 3,279 2,815 150 314 2,523
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,430 3,000 3,375 3,500 150 -275 3,349
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,950 3,320 3,500 150 -330 3,367
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,960 3,343 3,500 150 -307 3,349
Jiangsu 5,450 2,970 3,355 3,500 150 -295 3,344
Guangdong 5,400 2,920 3,306 3,500 150 -344 3,356
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,580 3,150 3,413 3,500 160 -247 3,459
Dalian, Liaoning 5,430 3,000 3,269 3,620 160 -511 3,639
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,950 3,216 3,640 160 -584 3,680
Boxing, Shandong 5,440 2,960 3,238 3,660 160 -582 3,687
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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