Today (Mar. 18), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures closed with gains on Tuesday due to oversold sentiment and lower soybean production in South America. Meal futures increase after high opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today. Soybean meal spot prices go higher by 10-30 yuan/tonne, with some purchases upon low-level forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 2860-2980 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2980, Shandong 2920-2930, Jiangsu 2910-2950, Dongguan 2950-2970, and Guangxi 2950-2980.) Not a minority of mills of have been in downtime for a lack of soybeans, so soybean meal is in tight supply in spot market. Rumors abound in the market this morning: one, considering the impact of COVID-19, stevedores at Santos port, Brazil, will stop their activities for 14 days; two, private terminals will not subject to this, for it is a public terminal that apply for the shutdown. These rumors have not been confirmed and leading media like Reuters and Bloomberg also did not have related reports, but the truth is that investors are rushing to cover short positions amid concerns that port logistics in top exporter may be affected by the fast-spreading pandemic. DCE meal futures rallied up beyond 11:00 (Beijing Time) after moving lower in earlier trading and closed with gains towards mid-session. April-May soybean imports may go lower than forecast, and soybean meal stocks are very low at present. Meanwhile, the demand for soybean meal is picking up with rising hog stocks. As it may take much more time to abate tight soybean meal supply in the market and due to worries about logistics amid the epidemic, soybean meal market is predicted to climb on a strengthening trend in the near term. Participants can keep an eye on the epidemic impacts in main production countries. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price rises today, of which it settles up 20-40 yuan/tonne at 2,290-2,360 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,280; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,320). Rapeseed is in short supply amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so the operation rate in oils mills stays at a low level, the same to rapeseed meal inventory. As there are not many soybeans arriving at port this month, many oil mills have lacked of soybeans. Consequently, soybean crush falls sharply and soybean meal spots are in tight supply. Rumor was flying in the market this morning: due to the Covid-19, stevedores at Santos port, Brazil, will stop their activities for 14 days. But there was also a rumor that private terminals will not subject to this, for it is a public terminal that apply for the shutdown. These rumors have not been confirmed and leading media like Reuters and Bloomberg also did not have related reports, but the truth is that investors are rushing to cover short positions amid concerns that port logistics in top exporter may be affected by the fast-spreading pandemic. This case will support meals prices, and short-term rapeseed meal price is predicted to go strongly.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices go stable with a partial rise today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-12,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,300-12,900 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 12,800-13,300 yuan/tonne. Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra on March 15 declared a 15-day export ban amid the novel coronavirus pandemic, so that fishmeal exports in this country also came to a suspension. Meanwhile, Peru may also postpone the investigation on marine resources due on March 26. Therefore, Chinese traders are active in propping up prices, which is positive to fishmeal market. However, the consumption of fishmeal is slack, and aquaculture has not started in the northern regions, so feed enterprises are not active purchasing and just taking hand-to-mouth buying. Hence, the overall demand is dismal. In conclusion, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with a strengthen trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 65,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,420 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are stable with some rises of 20-100 yuan/tonne today. In individual regions, the prices drop by 50 yuan/tonne. The overall operation rate in cottonseed oil plants is still not high, and Xinjiang cottonseed meal spots are in tight supply. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange today go up after high opens, and spot soybean meal up by 10-30 yuan/tonne. In consequence, partial cottonseed meal prices are supported. But the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrow. Moreover, the novel coronavirus has impacted breeding industry, for which feed enterprises said that the sales of poultry feed fell above 20% in March. Likewise, the demand from aquaculture also has been in an off season, and inland factories have not many new orders of cottonseed meal. In this case, the price drops in individual regions. Due to the fears of countries’ logistics being affected amid the coronavirus pandemic, meals futures rebound and short-term cottonseed meal price will likely go strongly. Buyers can pay attention to whether the soybean shipment from leading exporters will be under the impact of epidemic. If so, meals prices also will be boosted.