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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/19/2020

2020-03-19 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,430 3,000 3,402 3,728 150 -476 3,603
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,950 3,347 3,728 150 -531 3,622
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,960 3,370 3,728 150 -508 3,603
Jiangsu 5,450 2,970 3,382 3,728 150 -496 3,598
Guangdong 5,400 2,920 3,333 3,728 150 -545 3,610
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,420 2,980 3,384 2,957 150 277 2,629
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,970 3,363 2,957 150 256 2,646
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,990 3,394 2,957 150 287 2,627
Jiangsu 5,440 2,970 3,380 2,957 150 273 2,625
Guangdong 5,400 2,930 3,341 2,957 150 234 2,634
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,420 2,980 3,438 2,914 150 374 2,506
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,970 3,416 2,914 150 352 2,524
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,990 3,448 2,914 150 384 2,504
Jiangsu 5,440 2,970 3,434 2,914 150 370 2,501
Guangdong 5,400 2,930 3,395 2,914 150 331 2,511
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,420 2,980 3,330 2,825 150 355 2,531
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,970 3,309 2,825 150 334 2,547
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,990 3,340 2,825 150 365 2,529
Jiangsu 5,440 2,970 3,326 2,825 150 351 2,526
Guangdong 5,400 2,930 3,287 2,825 150 312 2,535
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,420 2,980 3,357 3,500 150 -293 3,351
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,970 3,336 3,500 150 -314 3,367
Costal Shandong 5,430 2,990 3,367 3,500 150 -283 3,349
Jiangsu 5,440 2,970 3,353 3,500 150 -297 3,346
Guangdong 5,400 2,930 3,314 3,500 150 -336 3,356
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,570 3,130 3,395 3,500 160 -265 3,461
Dalian, Liaoning 5,420 2,980 3,251 3,620 160 -529 3,641
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,350 2,970 3,232 3,640 160 -568 3,680
Boxing, Shandong 5,420 2,950 3,227 3,660 160 -593 3,691
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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