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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/20/2020

2020-03-20 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,460 3,060 3,455 3,028 150 277 2,710
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380 3,050 3,432 3,028 150 254 2,729
Costal Shandong 5,450 3,040 3,437 3,028 150 259 2,712
Jiangsu 5,480 3,010 3,419 3,028 150 241 2,705
Guangdong 5,500 2,950 3,376 3,028 150 198 2,700
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,460 3,060 3,455 3,022 150 283 2,702
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380 3,050 3,432 3,022 150 260 2,721
Costal Shandong 5,450 3,040 3,437 3,022 150 265 2,704
Jiangsu 5,480 3,010 3,419 3,022 150 247 2,697
Guangdong 5,500 2,950 3,376 3,022 150 204 2,692
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,460 3,060 3,509 2,997 150 362 2,601
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380 3,050 3,486 2,997 150 339 2,622
Costal Shandong 5,450 3,040 3,492 2,997 150 345 2,604
Jiangsu 5,480 3,010 3,474 2,997 150 327 2,596
Guangdong 5,500 2,950 3,431 2,997 150 284 2,591
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,460 3,060 3,400 2,886 150 364 2,599
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380 3,050 3,378 2,886 150 342 2,617
Costal Shandong 5,450 3,040 3,383 2,886 150 347 2,601
Jiangsu 5,480 3,010 3,364 2,886 150 328 2,594
Guangdong 5,500 2,950 3,321 2,886 150 285 2,590
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,460 3,060 3,428 3,500 150 -223 3,342
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380 3,050 3,405 3,500 150 -245 3,360
Costal Shandong 5,450 3,040 3,410 3,500 150 -240 3,344
Jiangsu 5,480 3,010 3,392 3,500 150 -258 3,337
Guangdong 5,500 2,950 3,348 3,500 150 -302 3,332
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,610 3,210 3,466 3,500 160 -194 3,453
Dalian, Liaoning 5,460 3,060 3,322 3,620 160 -458 3,633
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,380 3,050 3,301 3,640 160 -499 3,674
Boxing, Shandong 5,450 3,010 3,280 3,660 160 -540 3,685
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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