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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/23/2020

2020-03-23 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,240 3,612 3,092 150 370 2,771
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,450 3,150 3,524 3,092 150 282 2,793
Costal Shandong 5,500 3,170 3,549 3,092 150 307 2,781
Jiangsu 5,530 3,150 3,539 3,092 150 297 2,774
Guangdong 5,530 3,060 3,468 3,092 150 226 2,774
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,240 3,612 3,079 150 383 2,755
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,450 3,150 3,524 3,079 150 295 2,777
Costal Shandong 5,500 3,170 3,549 3,079 150 320 2,765
Jiangsu 5,530 3,150 3,539 3,079 150 310 2,757
Guangdong 5,530 3,060 3,468 3,079 150 239 2,757
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,240 3,668 3,054 150 464 2,653
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,450 3,150 3,579 3,054 150 375 2,676
Costal Shandong 5,500 3,170 3,604 3,054 150 400 2,663
Jiangsu 5,530 3,150 3,595 3,054 150 391 2,656
Guangdong 5,530 3,060 3,523 3,054 150 319 2,656
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,240 3,557 2,942 150 465 2,652
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,450 3,150 3,470 2,942 150 378 2,672
Costal Shandong 5,500 3,170 3,494 2,942 150 402 2,661
Jiangsu 5,530 3,150 3,484 2,942 150 392 2,654
Guangdong 5,530 3,060 3,413 2,942 150 321 2,654
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,240 3,585 3,500 150 -66 3,323
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,450 3,150 3,497 3,500 150 -153 3,344
Costal Shandong 5,500 3,170 3,522 3,500 150 -128 3,332
Jiangsu 5,530 3,150 3,512 3,500 150 -138 3,325
Guangdong 5,530 3,060 3,440 3,500 150 -210 3,325
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,690 3,390 3,622 3,500 160 -38 3,437
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,240 3,478 3,620 160 -302 3,617
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,450 3,150 3,392 3,640 160 -408 3,660
Boxing, Shandong 5,520 3,120 3,379 3,660 160 -441 3,671
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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