Today (Mar. 23), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Argentine soybean is priced at 3,750 yuan/tonne at Shandong port today, an increase of 50 yuan from last Friday. The supply of imported soybeans remains not very much at ports, and domestic soybean prices continue to keep strengthening. In addition, workers at a Brazil’s major port are to hold a strike due to the spread of the coronavirus, so participants are concerned about soybean shipments in South American countries. These are all bullish factors to the market of imported soybeans. However, Chinese importers are lured to scoop up on South American soybeans by considerable crush margins, with a total 45-50 cargoes bought last week, which is still a constraint to the market. Overall, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to keep firm in the short term.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices increase by 0.02-0.08 yuan/kg today. The prices of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal go up as the market picks up, inspiring cottonseed market. And pastures are in rigid demand. Accordingly, cottonseed prices are boosted. In order to avoid risk, inland oil mills mainly purchase on a hand-to-mouth basis, so there is not much trading yet. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed price will keep fluctuating to rally.

Summary: US soybean futures surged last Friday, which could be contributed to following reasons. Port workers in Argentina will continue the strike till this Wednesday, and though mills are operating normally, soybean shipments to mills and ports have been disrupted. Meanwhile, workers at Santos port, Brazil, will also vote this Monday on whether to hold a strike, and vehicles from inland to ports in this country have already decreased by 35%. These have stoked uncertainty in soybean and soymeal exports in South American countries. US exporters said last Thursday that they had sold soybeans to China, which could be an explanation that Chinese buyers were back to US markets with concerns over soybean supply in South America amid the coronavirus. For another, US soybean meal consumption will increase due to a decline in DDGS production, as ethanol plants have slashed operation rates after suffering losses in the wake of a steep fall in crude price. The above factors bolstered US soybean meal futures to jump sharply higher. Meal futures are shored up to hit the limit-up level on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today, but DCE soybean oil has limited rises due to the arbitrage triggered by strong meal prices. And a consecutive decline in DCE palm oil, dragged down by weak Malaysia’s exports and a subdued outlook in demand for palm oil in biodiesel, also weighs down DCE soybean oil. In the spot markets, soybean oil goes up 20-50 yuan/tonne and palm oil down by 20-100 yuan/tonne, with some purchases on low-level basis. The demand for oils is obviously better as the coronavirus epidemic is in its last phase in China, so soybean oil was trading strong last week. And due to slow shipments in Brazil, soybean imports will be small in March and probably only be 6.80 mln tonnes in April, some 500,000 tonnes below a previous estimate. Soybean crush fell to a four-year low level of 1.38 mln tonnes last week, and soybean oil stocks also declined by 5% to 1.32 mln tonnes. Hence, soybean oil market is underpinned to keep strengthening. But considerable crush margins for South American soybeans, concerns over global economy and low crude prices will still stoke volatility in the oil market. Buyers are suggested to wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment, but not to chase after excessively high prices. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5500-5520 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5500-5520; Rizhao traders 5570; Zhangjiagang traders 5550; and Guangzhou traders 5510-5530). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4540-4870 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20-100 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4870,down 20; Rizhao traders not available; Zhangjiagang traders 4670-4700, down 90; Guangzhou traders 4540-4560,down 100, and Xiamen not available). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadily fluctuates in price today, of which it fluctuates by 10-20 yuan at 7040-7230 yuan/tonne. (not available in Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi) US soybean and its products rose sharply, bolstered by concerns over supply disruptions in South American countries under the spread of the novel coronavirus. Moreover, US exporters confirmed to have sell soybeans to China, so US soybean futures surged last Friday. Rapeseed oil futures slightly swing on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today, as investors book profits by selling oils due to rising meal futures and weak crude prices. Rapeseed crush stays at a low level amid a stalemate in relations between China and Canada, and rapeseed oil is also in tight supply in spot market. Besides, vehicles from inland to ports in Brazil have already decreased by 35% due to the coronavirus, which have slowed down shipments in the country, so that soybean imports in China will be further delayed. Soybean crush fell to a four-year low level of 1.38 mln tonnes last week, and soybean oil stocks also declined by 5% to 1.32 mln tonnes. In addition, the demand for oils is turning better as catering businesses resume operations. Rapeseed oil market is thus expected to rebound moderately. But concerns triggered by the pandemic over global economy and low crude prices will still stoke volatility in the oil market. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips, but not chase after excessively high prices. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices mostly increase by 100-210 yuan/tonne and individually decrease by 200 yuan/tonne today. Some mills have outstanding contract. With China entering into a post-control period against the coronavirus, the demand for oils obviously goes better. And spot soybean oil up by 20-50 yuan/tonne today. Thus, cottonseed oil prices are boosted by these factors in many areas. But the demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil is limited, and prices in several regions where the previous quotations are high fall back. It is expected that short-term cottonseed oil market will be strong.