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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/24/2020

2020-03-24 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,260 3,638 3,144 150 344 2,825
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,210 3,587 3,144 150 293 2,840
Costal Shandong 5,550 3,180 3,567 3,144 150 273 2,835
Jiangsu 5,610 3,150 3,554 3,144 150 260 2,820
Guangdong 5,600 3,090 3,505 3,144 150 211 2,823
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,260 3,638 3,135 150 353 2,814
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,210 3,587 3,135 150 302 2,828
Costal Shandong 5,550 3,180 3,567 3,135 150 282 2,823
Jiangsu 5,610 3,150 3,554 3,135 150 269 2,809
Guangdong 5,600 3,090 3,505 3,135 150 220 2,811
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,260 3,693 3,119 150 424 2,723
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,210 3,642 3,119 150 373 2,738
Costal Shandong 5,550 3,180 3,622 3,119 150 353 2,733
Jiangsu 5,610 3,150 3,611 3,119 150 342 2,718
Guangdong 5,600 3,090 3,561 3,119 150 292 2,720
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,260 3,582 2,993 150 439 2,705
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,210 3,531 2,993 150 388 2,718
Costal Shandong 5,550 3,180 3,511 2,993 150 368 2,714
Jiangsu 5,610 3,150 3,498 2,993 150 355 2,700
Guangdong 5,600 3,090 3,449 2,993 150 306 2,703
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,260 3,610 3,500 150 -40 3,311
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,210 3,559 3,500 150 -91 3,325
Costal Shandong 5,550 3,180 3,539 3,500 150 -111 3,321
Jiangsu 5,610 3,150 3,526 3,500 150 -124 3,307
Guangdong 5,600 3,090 3,477 3,500 150 -173 3,309
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,740 3,410 3,646 3,500 160 -14 3,427
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,260 3,502 3,620 160 -278 3,607
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,210 3,453 3,640 160 -347 3,644
Boxing, Shandong 5,580 3,180 3,437 3,660 160 -383 3,659
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.
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