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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/25/2020

2020-03-25 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,660 3,300 3,682 3,144 150 388 2,808
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,240 3,624 3,144 150 330 2,823
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,210 3,604 3,144 150 310 2,818
Jiangsu 5,650 3,190 3,594 3,144 150 300 2,811
Guangdong 5,700 3,100 3,532 3,144 150 238 2,799
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,660 3,300 3,682 3,161 150 371 2,830
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,240 3,624 3,161 150 313 2,844
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,210 3,604 3,161 150 293 2,839
Jiangsu 5,650 3,190 3,594 3,161 150 283 2,832
Guangdong 5,700 3,100 3,532 3,161 150 221 2,820
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,660 3,300 3,739 3,116 150 473 2,701
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,240 3,680 3,116 150 414 2,716
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,210 3,660 3,116 150 394 2,711
Jiangsu 5,650 3,190 3,650 3,116 150 384 2,704
Guangdong 5,700 3,100 3,589 3,116 150 323 2,691
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,660 3,300 3,626 2,991 150 485 2,686
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,240 3,568 2,991 150 427 2,700
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,210 3,548 2,991 150 407 2,695
Jiangsu 5,650 3,190 3,537 2,991 150 396 2,689
Guangdong 5,700 3,100 3,475 2,991 150 334 2,677
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,660 3,300 3,654 3,500 150 4 3,295
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,240 3,596 3,500 150 -54 3,309
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,210 3,576 3,500 150 -74 3,304
Jiangsu 5,650 3,190 3,565 3,500 150 -85 3,297
Guangdong 5,700 3,100 3,504 3,500 150 -147 3,285
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,810 3,450 3,690 3,500 160 30 3,413
Dalian, Liaoning 5,660 3,300 3,546 3,620 160 -234 3,593
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,240 3,488 3,640 160 -312 3,630
Boxing, Shandong 5,670 3,190 3,459 3,660 160 -361 3,641
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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