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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/26/2020

2020-03-26 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700 3,250 3,651 3,196 150 305 2,865
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650 3,210 3,609 3,196 150 263 2,877
Costal Shandong 5,670 3,210 3,613 3,196 150 267 2,872
Jiangsu 5,700 3,150 3,572 3,196 150 226 2,865
Guangdong 5,700 3,080 3,516 3,196 150 170 2,865
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700 3,250 3,651 3,190 150 311 2,857
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650 3,210 3,609 3,190 150 269 2,869
Costal Shandong 5,670 3,210 3,613 3,190 150 273 2,864
Jiangsu 5,700 3,150 3,572 3,190 150 232 2,857
Guangdong 5,700 3,080 3,516 3,190 150 176 2,857
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700 3,250 3,708 3,118 150 440 2,694
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650 3,210 3,666 3,118 150 398 2,706
Costal Shandong 5,670 3,210 3,670 3,118 150 402 2,701
Jiangsu 5,700 3,150 3,629 3,118 150 361 2,694
Guangdong 5,700 3,080 3,573 3,118 150 305 2,694
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700 3,250 3,594 3,011 150 433 2,703
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650 3,210 3,553 3,011 150 392 2,714
Costal Shandong 5,670 3,210 3,557 3,011 150 396 2,709
Jiangsu 5,700 3,150 3,515 3,011 150 354 2,703
Guangdong 5,700 3,080 3,459 3,011 150 298 2,703
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700 3,250 3,622 3,500 150 -28 3,285
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650 3,210 3,581 3,500 150 -69 3,297
Costal Shandong 5,670 3,210 3,585 3,500 150 -65 3,292
Jiangsu 5,700 3,150 3,543 3,500 150 -107 3,285
Guangdong 5,700 3,080 3,488 3,500 150 -162 3,285
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,850 3,400 3,656 3,500 160 -4 3,405
Dalian, Liaoning 5,700 3,250 3,512 3,620 160 -268 3,585
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650 3,210 3,472 3,640 160 -328 3,620
Boxing, Shandong 5,750 3,210 3,488 3,660 160 -332 3,625
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.