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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/27/2020

2020-03-27 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Ma . shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,600 3,250 3,632 3,175 150 307 2,862
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 3,240 3,614 3,175 150 289 2,874
Costal Shandong 5,610 3,230 3,618 3,175 150 293 2,860
Jiangsu 5,620 3,190 3,588 3,175 150 263 2,857
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,529 3,175 150 204 2,862
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,600 3,250 3,632 3,171 150 311 2,857
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 3,240 3,614 3,171 150 293 2,869
Costal Shandong 5,610 3,230 3,618 3,171 150 297 2,855
Jiangsu 5,620 3,190 3,588 3,171 150 267 2,852
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,529 3,171 150 208 2,857
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,600 3,250 3,688 3,099 150 439 2,695
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 3,240 3,670 3,099 150 421 2,708
Costal Shandong 5,610 3,230 3,674 3,099 150 425 2,692
Jiangsu 5,620 3,190 3,644 3,099 150 395 2,690
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,585 3,099 150 336 2,695
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,600 3,250 3,576 2,995 150 431 2,705
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 3,240 3,559 2,995 150 414 2,716
Costal Shandong 5,610 3,230 3,562 2,995 150 417 2,703
Jiangsu 5,620 3,190 3,532 2,995 150 387 2,701
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,473 2,995 150 328 2,705
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,600 3,250 3,604 3,500 150 -47 3,309
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 3,240 3,586 3,500 150 -64 3,321
Costal Shandong 5,610 3,230 3,590 3,500 150 -60 3,307
Jiangsu 5,620 3,190 3,560 3,500 150 -90 3,304
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,501 3,500 150 -149 3,309
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,750 3,400 3,640 3,600 160 -120 3,550
Dalian, Liaoning 5,600 3,250 3,496 3,720 160 -384 3,730
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,550 3,240 3,480 3,740 160 -420 3,765
Boxing, Shandong 5,640 3,240 3,494 3,760 160 -426 3,772
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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