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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/30/2020

2020-03-30 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,640 3,340 3,710 3,188 150 372 2,869
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,300 3,671 3,188 150 333 2,878
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,750 3,188 150 412 2,869
Jiangsu 5,650 3,350 3,720 3,188 150 382 2,866
Guangdong 5,650 3,200 3,602 3,188 150 264 2,866
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,640 3,340 3,710 3,187 150 373 2,868
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,300 3,671 3,187 150 334 2,877
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,750 3,187 150 413 2,868
Jiangsu 5,650 3,350 3,720 3,187 150 383 2,865
Guangdong 5,650 3,200 3,602 3,187 150 265 2,865
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,640 3,340 3,767 3,109 150 508 2,697
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,300 3,727 3,109 150 468 2,708
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,806 3,109 150 547 2,697
Jiangsu 5,650 3,350 3,777 3,109 150 518 2,695
Guangdong 5,650 3,200 3,658 3,109 150 399 2,695
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,640 3,340 3,654 3,014 150 490 2,720
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,300 3,615 3,014 150 451 2,729
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,693 3,014 150 529 2,720
Jiangsu 5,650 3,350 3,664 3,014 150 500 2,718
Guangdong 5,650 3,200 3,545 3,014 150 381 2,718
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,640 3,340 3,682 3,630 150 -98 3,464
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,300 3,643 3,630 150 -137 3,473
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,722 3,630 150 -59 3,464
Jiangsu 5,650 3,350 3,692 3,630 150 -88 3,462
Guangdong 5,650 3,200 3,573 3,630 150 -207 3,462
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,790 3,490 3,718 3,700 160 -142 3,667
Dalian, Liaoning 5,640 3,340 3,574 3,820 160 -406 3,847
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,300 3,536 3,840 160 -464 3,880
Boxing, Shandong 5,710 3,340 3,586 3,860 160 -434 3,883
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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