Today (Mar. 30), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: The reference price for Argentine soybean is 4,100 yuan/tonne at port today, a rise of 150 yuan/tonne from last Friday. As port soybeans are not in huge supplies at present and domestic soybean prices keep rising, participants in the market for imported soybeans have a strong sentiment of chasing after high prices, which is bullish to the market for imported soybeans. In the meantime, the supply of soybeans to Argentine crushing plants is down by half and falling, as logistics are slow and even blocked under the influence of the coronavirus. Moreover, several members of crew on an Italian cruise at Brazil’s Santos port are suspected of infecting the coronavirus. The market is worried about soybean delivery and shipment in South America, which is also positive to domestic market. With a myriad of bullish factors, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to maintain the strengthening trend in the short term.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices are partly not available and partly up 0.01-0.06 yuan/kg. Ranchers are in rigid demand. Meanwhile, cottonseed oil price rises and cottonseed meal price remains high. And these factors give confidence to cottonseed market, seeing an increase in price. But inland oil mills are wary of purchasing cottonseed due to the high price, so there is not much trading yet. Thus, the price rises of cottonseed are limited. It is expected that short-term cottonseed price will keep strong.

Summary: Dozens of towns near the Rosario grains export hub have blocked ground transport as Argentina locked down against the coronavirus pandemic. The supply of soybeans to Argentine crushing plants was down by half. And several members of crew on an Italian cruise at Brazil’s Santos port were suspected of infecting the COVID-19, which added to panic among local markets. US soybean futures rose last Friday on concerns over disrupted delivery and shipments in South America and technical buying. Oil futures follow to rise on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil go up by 50-100 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Soybean crush remained at a low-level of 1.48 mln tonnes last week, and mills will continue to keep low operation rates in the next two weeks as soybean imports will only be 6.88 mln tonnes in April. Meanwhile, the demand for oils is good recently, as catering businesses are resuming work and schools will open gradually. Soybean oil saw the daily average trading over 30,000 tonnes last week, and its stocks thus fell by 5% to 1.256 mln tonnes. Palm oil stocks in China also keep decreasing due to low imports. Under the drive of bullish fundamentals, oil market may swing to go upward in the short run. But there are still worrisome factors: crush margins for South American soybeans are still decent, there are concerns over global economy due to the spread of the pandemic, and weak crude oil prices have led to a sharp drop in demand for biofuels. Hence, participants still need to remain cautious about the upward space in oil market, to avoid risks of frequent fluctuations, and to keep good balance of buying and selling. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5600-5760 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 50-110 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5660-5680; Rizhao traders 5760; Zhangjiagang traders 5700; and Guangzhou traders 5600-5610). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4940-5190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly up by 80-120 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5150-5170,up 80; Rizhao traders 5180-5190, up 100; Zhangjiagang traders 5110, up 120; Guangzhou traders 4940,up 100; and Xiamen not available). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 50-70 yuan at 7090-7230 yuan/tonne. (Fujian 7230; not available in Guangdong; and Guangxi 7090, up 60) Rapeseed crush remains at a low level due to unsettled issues between China and Canada, and rapeseed oil is in tight supply in spot market. In the week as of March 27th, rapeseed oil stocks fell 11% to 281,800 tonnes in coastal regions, and soybean oil stocks also declined by 4.9% to 1.25 mln tonnes nationwide. Many mills are in downtime for soybean shortages and soybean imports are not in huge amount in April. Meanwhile, the demand is picking up, as food services resume operations. However, due to considerable crush margins for South American soybeans, May-June soybean imports will rally sharply to 18 mln tonnes, and April-May rapeseed oil imports are also about 500,000 tonnes. The outside markets are volatile due to the pandemic, so spot rapeseed oil market will probably follow futures to swing frequently. It is suggested to keep good balance of buying and selling. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices are partly not available and partly up 50-300 yuan/tonne today. As catering industry backs to normal in succession and schools are about to reopen, cottonseed oil factories bull the market outlook and are optimistic in trading. Besides, the logistical problems of South American soybeans affected by the coronavirus pandemic have triggered market fears, boosting beans to rise on CBOT. In this case, oils on DCE today also go up. In the spot market, soybean oil and palm oil up by 50-100 yuan/tonne. Thus, cottonseed oil market is bolstered. However, the demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil is limited after a price hike. Over the next two weeks, the operation rate in oil mills will likely remain low. And with the fundamentals going well, cottonseed oil price may follow soy oil to fluctuate to pick up in the near term.