Today (Mar. 30), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: Dozens of towns near the Rosario grains export hub have blocked ground transport as Argentina locked down against the coronavirus pandemic. The supply of soybeans to Argentine crushing plants was down by half. And several members of crew on an Italian cruise at Brazil’s Santos port were suspected of infecting the COVID-19, which added to panic among local markets. US soybean futures rose last Friday on concerns over disrupted delivery and shipments in South America and technical buying. Meal futures post wide rises on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily increase by 60-120 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level replenishment, and the overall trading is tepid after the price rise. Specifically, the price settles at 3100-3310 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3310, Shandong 3330-3350, Jiangsu 3350-3370, Dongguan 3080-3100, and Guangxi 3100-3150.) Soybean meal stocks have fallen to a six-and-a-half-year low of 270,000 tonnes in the week ending March 27th, down by 16% from the previous week, as domestic mills now are keeping low operation rates. And soybean loading in South America is slow due to the spread of the coronavirus, so soybean imports in China will go lower than forecast, and soybean meal will probably remain in tight supply until the end of April. Meanwhile, farmers are active making hog replenishment due to handsome breeding margins, and the demand from egg-laying poultry breeding will also pick up as schools will gradually open. In addition, DDGS supplies are reducing as ethanol enterprises are keeping low operation rates due to weak crude oil prices, which will help boost the demand for soybean meal. Traders are reluctant to sell stocks in hand, so soybean meal prices will stay at the high level until tight supply abates. But both May and June soybean imports will significantly increase to 9 mln tonnes, which may affect the middle-to-long-term trend.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up 50-80 yuan/tonne at 2,470-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,500, up 80; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,540, up 70). As the ground transport in Argentina has been blocked against the coronavirus pandemic, the supply of soybeans to Argentine crushing plants is down by half. And several members of crew on an Italian cruise ship at Brazil’s Santos port are suspected of infecting the COVID-19, raising the panic to local markets. Meanwhile, U.S. soybeans closed higher last Friday on concerns over disrupted delivery and shipments in South America and technical buying. Today, meal futures sharply rise in China. On the other hand, rapeseed is in tight supply amid the tensions between China and Canada, resulting in low operation rate in oil mills. Last week, rapeseed meal stocks in coastal areas decreased by 6.4% to 19,000 tonnes. Moreover, due to super low operation rate in domestic oil mills currently, soybean stocks also down by 16% to a six-and-a-half-year low of 270,000 tonnes. In addition, the aquaculture is on pace for a recovery with the weather warming up. Therefore, the overall rapeseed meal will likely continue high price until an ease of short supply.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial rise today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,700-12,100 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,600 yuan/tonne, a partial rise of 200-300 yuan. Peruvian President has ordered an extension of state of emergency until April 12 in a bid to curb the spread of the COVID-19 infection. In this situation, there is a potential that the country will continue to postpone the time to start fishing in the centre-north regions. In addition, Peruvian manufacturers now have low stocks available for sales. These help support both domestic and foreign markets. Besides, Super Prime SD fishmeal is in tight supplies in China now, so traders are stalling sales, which sends the prices to rise today. Nevertheless, aquaculture is not at full swing in northern China due to the capricious weather conditions, and downstream buyers are not willing to buy at current high prices; hence, the consumption of port stocks are slow, which thus limits the upward space of fishmeal prices. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with a strengthening trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 63,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,700 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,420 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price steadily fluctuates by 20-100 yuan/tonne today. Oil mills have low stocks of cottonseed meal. The gloomy crude oil market has resulted in low operation rate in ethanol enterprises and a decline of DDGS production, boosting global soybean meal price to go up. Moreover, meals on DCE today stage a sharp rise on the short supply in China, and spot soybean meal up by 60-120 yuan/tonne. Thus, these factors are positive for cottonseed meal market, and the quotation has increased in some places. But the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is unreasonable. Besides, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing cottonseed meal amid a steep rise in price, so some factories cut the price to attract orders. The tight stocks of soybean meal will not be eased by the end of April, so cottonseed meal price is likely to follow the soybean meal to remain at high points in the near term.