China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 13, 2020)

2020-03-31 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

As of this Friday (Mar. 27), edible palm oil stock totals 799,200 tonnes at domestic ports, down 2.7% from 821,600 tonnes a week earlier; down 127,100 tonnes or 13.7% from 926,300 tonnes the same period last month; up 32,600 tonnes or 4.2% from 766,600 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 138,100 tonnes, down 10,750 tonnes or 7.2% from 148,850 tonnes last week.

There are less boatloads of palm oil arriving at ports this week. Besides, palm oil spots are mostly rise by 190-250 yuan/tonne, while soybean oil rises less than palm oil. As of this Friday, spot grade one soybean oil prevails at 5,540-5,650 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Tianjin traders, 5,580-5,590; Rizhao traders, 5,650; Zhangjiagang traders, 5,620; Guangzhou traders, 5,540) and mostly increases by 50-120 yuan/tonne and individually drops by 20 yuan/tonne compared to last Friday, narrowing the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil. And the price spread is 625 yuan/tonne, narrowing by 60 yuan/tonne from 685 yuan/tonne last week. However, palm oil futures go up at home and abroad this week. And with the catering services recovering, the demand for oils backs to normal. Moreover, palm oil trading volume is lower than last week but still increases overall, which totals 58,900 tonnes, down 6,510 tonnes from 65,410 tonnes the previous week. Therefore, domestic edible palm oil stocks continue to drop this week. Additionally, China’s buyers have bought not many cargoes of palm oil due to the poor import profit, so edible palm oil stocks are likely to slide in later period on the whole.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W13	W12	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W13	W12	Change
Tianjin Port	8.91	9.75	-0.84	-32.09%	-38.13%	2.3	2.3	0
Hebei	0.14	0.2	-0.06	-81.58%	-65.00%	0.01	0	0.01
Shandong Port	3.61	3.18	0.43	-19.78%	-12.38%	0.745	0.855	-0.11
East China	26.1	28.5	-2.4	-22.69%	9.48%	8.5	9	-0.5
Guangdong	33.03	32.62	0.41	-1.75%	31.33%	2.01	2.48	-0.47
Guangxi	4.43	3.81	0.62	44.30%	116.10%	0.245	0.25	-0.005
Fujian	3.7	4.1	-0.4	-2.63%	-44.78%	0	0	0
Total：	79.92	82.16	-2.24	-13.72%	4.25%	13.81	14.885	-1.075

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for March this week is 320,000 tonnes and flat from last week (RBD palm olein 200,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); that for April is 370,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) unchanged with last week; that for May is 370,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) unchanged from last week.

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2020/3/23	Apr.2020	570	4875	4576	-299
2020/3/23	May.2020	565	4833	4576	-257
2020/3/24	Apr.2020	575	4911	4776	-135
2020/3/24	May.2020	575	4911	4776	-135
2020/3/24	Jun.2020	570	4869	4728	-141
2020/3/24	Jul.2020	565	4827	4728	-99
2020/3/24	Aug.2020	565	4827	4728	-99
2020/3/24	Sep.2020	565	4827	4728	-99
2020/3/25	Jun.2020	570	4859	4902	43
2020/3/25	Jul.2020	575	4901	4902	1
2020/3/25	Sep.2020	575	4901	4902	1
2020/3/26	May.2020	595	5094	4736	-358
2020/3/27	Jun.2020	610	5189	4812	-377
2020/3/27	Jul.2020	605	5147	4812	-335

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2020/3/23	0
2020/3/23	0
2020/3/23	0
2020/3/23	0
2020/3/23	0

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