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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 3/31/2020

2020-03-31 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,340 3,701 3,196 150 355 2,891
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,330 3,695 3,196 150 349 2,889
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,750 3,196 150 404 2,879
Jiangsu 5,620 3,350 3,714 3,196 150 368 2,884
Guangdong 5,630 3,180 3,582 3,196 150 236 2,881
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,340 3,701 3,195 150 356 2,890
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,330 3,695 3,195 150 350 2,887
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,750 3,195 150 405 2,878
Jiangsu 5,620 3,350 3,714 3,195 150 369 2,883
Guangdong 5,630 3,180 3,582 3,195 150 237 2,880
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,340 3,757 3,117 150 490 2,720
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,330 3,751 3,117 150 484 2,718
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,806 3,117 150 539 2,708
Jiangsu 5,620 3,350 3,771 3,117 150 504 2,713
Guangdong 5,630 3,180 3,638 3,117 150 371 2,710
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,340 3,645 3,023 150 472 2,743
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,330 3,639 3,023 150 466 2,741
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,693 3,023 150 520 2,731
Jiangsu 5,620 3,350 3,658 3,023 150 485 2,736
Guangdong 5,630 3,180 3,526 3,023 150 353 2,734
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,340 3,673 3,630 150 -107 3,476
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,330 3,667 3,630 150 -113 3,473
Costal Shandong 5,640 3,390 3,722 3,630 150 -59 3,464
Jiangsu 5,620 3,350 3,686 3,630 150 -94 3,469
Guangdong 5,630 3,180 3,554 3,630 150 -226 3,466
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,740 3,490 3,710 3,700 160 -150 3,677
Dalian, Liaoning 5,590 3,340 3,566 3,820 160 -414 3,857
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,330 3,560 3,840 160 -440 3,880
Boxing, Shandong 5,770 3,350 3,603 3,860 160 -417 3,871
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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