Today (Mar. 31), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures extended gains on Monday as soybean exports in South America might be constrained by COVID-19. But meal futures expand early losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today due to profit taking. Soybean meal spot prices are resilient due to tight supplies and steadily fluctuate by 60-120 yuan/tonne in weaker trading. Specifically, the price settles at 3100-3300 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3300, Shandong 3320-3330, Jiangsu 3320-3350, Dongguan 3080-3100, and Guangxi 3130-3150.) Soybean meal stocks have fallen to a six-and-a-half-year low of 270,000 tonnes in the week ending March 27th, down by 16% from the previous week, as domestic mills now are keeping low operation rates. And there is a potential that soybean meal will stay in tight supply until late April, for soybean imports are forecast to be only 6.88 mln tonnes in April. On the demand side, farmers are active making hog replenishment due to considerable breeding margins, and the demand for meat products will pick up as schools will open soon. In addition, DDGS supplies are reducing as ethanol enterprises are keeping low operation rates due to weak crude oil prices, which will help boost the demand for soybean meal. Mills now almost have no spot goods for sales, and distributors are also stalling sales. In conclusion, soybean meal prices will remain resilient amid a tight supply outlook, and the overall prices will stay at the high level. But May and June soybean imports will together reach 18 mln tonnes, which may affect the middle-to-long-term trend. It is not suggested to chase further higher prices, and buyers can buy on low-level forward basis. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price fluctuates in stability today, of which it fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,470-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,490). Rapeseed is in tight supply amid the tensions between China and Canada, so rapeseed crush stays at a low level. Same goes for rapeseed meal stocks. Due to the super low operation rate, soybean crush was just at 1.47 mln tonnes last week, and soybean meal stocks had dropped to a six-and-a-half-year low. Even more, only 6.88 mln tonnes of soybeans will arrive in China in April, so the operation rate is low on account of soybean shortage, which may last until mid-to-late April. In addition, the aquaculture is on pace for a recovery with the weather warming up. Therefore, the overall rapeseed meal will likely continue high price until an ease of short supply. But short-term price may fluctuate to adjust after a continuous rise. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,700-12,100 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,600 yuan/tonne. The consumption is not very much, as aquaculture is not at full swing in northern China due to the capricious weather conditions. Downstream feed plants are not willing to buy at current high prices, instead, they choose to take hand-to-mouth buying. Thus, there is limited upward space for fishmeal prices. However, fishmeal exports in Peru may get affected since its President has ordered an extension of state of emergency until April 12th. In China, fishmeal arrivals also keep decreasing, and stocks total 139,000 tonnes, a decline of 1.59% from yesterday. In particular, super prime SD fishmeal is in tight supplies now, so traders are stalling sales. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with a strengthening trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 58,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,600 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,420 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are stable today. The low stocks of cottonseed meal, coupled with tight supply of soybean meal in China are both positive for cottonseed meal market. But the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is unreasonable. Besides, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing cottonseed meal amid a steep rise in price. The tight stocks of soybean meal will not be eased within a short time, so cottonseed meal price is likely to follow the soybean meal to remain at high points in the near term.