Today (Mar. 31), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: The reference price for Argentine soybean is 4,300 yuan/tonne at port today, a rise of 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. As port soybeans are not in huge supplies at present and domestic soybean prices keep rising, participants in the market for imported soybeans have a strong sentiment of chasing after high prices, which is bullish to the market for imported soybeans. Argentine shipments of soymeal, soybeans and other agricultural exports were delayed as the government ramps up inspections of incoming cargo ships to ensure crew members were free of coronavirus, according to a Reuters report on Monday. The market is worried about soybean delivery and shipment in South America, which is also positive to domestic market. With a myriad of bullish factors, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to maintain the strengthening trend in the short term.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices are partly not available and partly up 0.01-0.04 yuan/kg. Ranchers are in rigid demand and cottonseed oil price rises and cottonseed meal price remains high, giving confidence to cottonseed market, so traders have a strong willingness to raise price. But inland oil mills are wary of purchasing cottonseed due to the high price, so there is not much trading yet. Thus, the price rises of cottonseed are limited. It is expected that short-term cottonseed price will keep strong.

Summary: US soybean futures extended gains on Monday as soybean exports in South America might be constrained by COVID-19. But soybean oil and palm oil swing to fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today on profit-taking. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil post a partial decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne, both in tepid trading. All nations are reinforcing measures against the novel coronavirus, among them, global top importer India has carried out a nationwide lockdown. This has magnified the impact on global vegetable oils used in foodservice consumption, and weak crude oil prices have resulted in a drop in demand for biofuels. China keeps purchasing South American soybeans whose gross crush margins are as high as 300 yuan/tonne. Besides, BMD palm oil futures also fall sharply after Malaysia palm oil growers asked the government of Sabahto allow to resume palm planting during the shutdown order. Hence, the overall domestic oil market goes into adjustment. However, mills will keep low operation rates in the next two weeks for a lack of soybeans. Meanwhile, soybean oil and palm oil stocks keep reducing, as the demand for low-priced oils has been strong with the upcoming openings of schools. The bears are cautious now on concerns over production and logistics in main soybean and palm oil producing countries. Overall, the oil market is predicted to have limited downside space, and buyers can wait for the moment in view of fluctuations on the DCE.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5590-5740 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5660-5670; Rizhao traders 5740; Zhangjiagang traders 5700; and Guangzhou traders 5590-5600). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4990-5210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5170, down 20; Rizhao traders 5210, up 20; Zhangjiagang traders 5150, flat; Guangzhou traders 4990,down 20; and Xiamen not available). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil edges lower in price today, of which it partially settles down 10-30 yuan at 7070-7220 yuan/tonne. (Fujian 7230; not available in Guangdong; and Guangxi 7070) Weak crude oil prices have resulted in a sharp drop in demand for biofuels amid the fast-spreading pandemic across the globe. China’s soybean imports will see a substantial rally to 9 mln tonnes both in May and June, which can be mainly contributed to generous crush margins for South American soybeans. Hence, rapeseed oil market finds itself difficult to maintain rallies, and swings to adjust today. Nevertheless, mills have low rapeseed stocks amid pending issues between China and Canada, and spot rapeseed oil is also in tight supplies. And mills will also keep low operation rates in the next two weeks for soybean shortages. Meanwhile, the demand for oils is picking up, for catering businesses are resuming work and schools will gradually open around April. Hence, rapeseed oil market may be resilient. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make small replenishment.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices are mainly stable with partial rises of 50-200 yuan/tonne today. Catering businesses resume the services in succession and schools are about to reopen. And the operation rate in oil mills will likely remain low over the next two weeks. With the fundamentals going well, cottonseed oil factories bull the market outlook and actively raise the price. However, the demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil is limited after a price hike. Moreover, soybean oil and palm oil on Dalian Commodity Exchange fall back with fluctuations today. In the spot market, soybean oil and palm oil partly down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. This may drag down cottonseed oil market to stop rising and turn to be stable.