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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/1/2020

2020-04-01 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,310 3,668 3,167 150 351 2,866
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,280 3,655 3,167 150 338 2,852
Costal Shandong 5,600 3,340 3,703 3,167 150 386 2,852
Jiangsu 5,570 3,320 3,681 3,167 150 364 2,859
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,529 3,167 150 212 2,852
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,310 3,668 3,130 150 388 2,819
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,280 3,655 3,130 150 375 2,805
Costal Shandong 5,600 3,340 3,703 3,130 150 423 2,805
Jiangsu 5,570 3,320 3,681 3,130 150 401 2,812
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,529 3,130 150 249 2,805
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,310 3,723 3,039 150 534 2,634
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,280 3,711 3,039 150 522 2,619
Costal Shandong 5,600 3,340 3,759 3,039 150 570 2,619
Jiangsu 5,570 3,320 3,737 3,039 150 548 2,627
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,585 3,039 150 396 2,619
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,310 3,612 3,023 150 439 2,754
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,280 3,599 3,023 150 426 2,741
Costal Shandong 5,600 3,340 3,647 3,023 150 474 2,741
Jiangsu 5,570 3,320 3,625 3,023 150 452 2,747
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,473 3,023 150 300 2,741
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,310 3,640 3,630 150 -140 3,487
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,280 3,627 3,630 150 -153 3,473
Costal Shandong 5,600 3,340 3,675 3,630 150 -105 3,473
Jiangsu 5,570 3,320 3,653 3,630 150 -127 3,480
Guangdong 5,600 3,120 3,501 3,630 150 -279 3,473
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,690 3,460 3,678 3,700 160 -182 3,687
Dalian, Liaoning 5,540 3,310 3,534 3,820 160 -446 3,867
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,280 3,520 3,840 160 -480 3,880
Boxing, Shandong 5,720 3,340 3,587 3,860 160 -433 3,881
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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