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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/2/2020

2020-04-02 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,500 3,280 3,636 3,112 150 374 2,806
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500 3,260 3,620 3,112 150 358 2,806
Costal Shandong 5,570 3,310 3,673 3,112 150 411 2,789
Jiangsu 5,540 3,280 3,644 3,112 150 382 2,797
Guangdong 5,550 3,100 3,504 3,112 150 242 2,794
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,500 3,280 3,636 3,075 150 411 2,759
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500 3,260 3,620 3,075 150 395 2,759
Costal Shandong 5,570 3,310 3,673 3,075 150 448 2,743
Jiangsu 5,540 3,280 3,644 3,075 150 419 2,750
Guangdong 5,550 3,100 3,504 3,075 150 279 2,747
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,500 3,280 3,691 2,984 150 557 2,575
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500 3,260 3,675 2,984 150 541 2,575
Costal Shandong 5,570 3,310 3,729 2,984 150 595 2,557
Jiangsu 5,540 3,280 3,699 2,984 150 565 2,565
Guangdong 5,550 3,100 3,559 2,984 150 425 2,562
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,500 3,280 3,581 2,971 150 460 2,697
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500 3,260 3,565 2,971 150 444 2,697
Costal Shandong 5,570 3,310 3,618 2,971 150 497 2,682
Jiangsu 5,540 3,280 3,588 2,971 150 467 2,688
Guangdong 5,550 3,100 3,448 2,971 150 327 2,686
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,500 3,280 3,609 3,630 150 -171 3,497
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500 3,260 3,593 3,630 150 -187 3,497
Costal Shandong 5,570 3,310 3,645 3,630 150 -135 3,480
Jiangsu 5,540 3,280 3,616 3,630 150 -164 3,487
Guangdong 5,550 3,100 3,476 3,630 150 -304 3,485
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,650 3,430 3,648 3,700 160 -212 3,695
Dalian, Liaoning 5,500 3,280 3,504 3,820 160 -476 3,875
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,500 3,260 3,488 3,840 160 -512 3,900
Boxing, Shandong 5,700 3,340 3,584 3,860 160 -436 3,885
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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