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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/3/2020

2020-04-03 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,510 3,250 3,614 3,111 150 353 2,803
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,230 3,602 3,111 150 341 2,798
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,300 3,675 3,111 150 414 2,776
Jiangsu 5,570 3,250 3,626 3,111 150 365 2,788
Guangdong 5,500 3,050 3,455 3,111 150 194 2,805
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,510 3,250 3,614 3,058 150 406 2,736
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,230 3,602 3,058 150 394 2,731
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,300 3,675 3,058 150 467 2,709
Jiangsu 5,570 3,250 3,626 3,058 150 418 2,721
Guangdong 5,500 3,050 3,455 3,058 150 247 2,738
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,510 3,250 3,670 2,974 150 546 2,559
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,230 3,658 2,974 150 534 2,554
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,300 3,731 2,974 150 607 2,532
Jiangsu 5,570 3,250 3,682 2,974 150 558 2,544
Guangdong 5,500 3,050 3,510 2,974 150 386 2,562
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,510 3,250 3,559 3,009 150 400 2,743
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,230 3,547 3,009 150 388 2,739
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,300 3,619 3,009 150 460 2,718
Jiangsu 5,570 3,250 3,570 3,009 150 411 2,730
Guangdong 5,500 3,050 3,400 3,009 150 241 2,746
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,510 3,250 3,587 3,630 150 -193 3,494
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,230 3,575 3,630 150 -205 3,490
Costal Shandong 5,620 3,300 3,647 3,630 150 -133 3,469
Jiangsu 5,570 3,250 3,598 3,630 150 -182 3,480
Guangdong 5,500 3,050 3,427 3,630 150 -353 3,497
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,660 3,400 3,626 3,700 160 -234 3,693
Dalian, Liaoning 5,510 3,250 3,482 3,820 160 -498 3,873
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,530 3,230 3,469 3,840 160 -531 3,894
Boxing, Shandong 5,750 3,340 3,592 3,860 160 -428 3,875
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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