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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/7/2020

2020-04-07 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,625 3,096 150 379 2,750
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,200 3,592 3,096 150 346 2,762
Costal Shandong 5,660 3,250 3,643 3,096 150 397 2,748
Jiangsu 5,650 3,250 3,641 3,096 150 395 2,750
Guangdong 5,650 3,000 3,444 3,096 150 198 2,750
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,625 3,043 150 432 2,683
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,200 3,592 3,043 150 399 2,695
Costal Shandong 5,660 3,250 3,643 3,043 150 450 2,681
Jiangsu 5,650 3,250 3,641 3,043 150 448 2,683
Guangdong 5,650 3,000 3,444 3,043 150 251 2,683
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,682 2,960 150 572 2,506
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,200 3,648 2,960 150 538 2,519
Costal Shandong 5,660 3,250 3,700 2,960 150 590 2,504
Jiangsu 5,650 3,250 3,698 2,960 150 588 2,506
Guangdong 5,650 3,000 3,500 2,960 150 390 2,506
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,569 2,996 150 423 2,695
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,200 3,536 2,996 150 390 2,706
Costal Shandong 5,660 3,250 3,586 2,996 150 440 2,693
Jiangsu 5,650 3,250 3,585 2,996 150 439 2,695
Guangdong 5,650 3,000 3,387 2,996 150 241 2,695
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,597 3,630 150 -183 3,462
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,200 3,564 3,630 150 -216 3,473
Costal Shandong 5,660 3,250 3,615 3,630 150 -165 3,459
Jiangsu 5,650 3,250 3,613 3,630 150 -167 3,462
Guangdong 5,650 3,000 3,415 3,630 150 -365 3,462
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,800 3,380 3,632 3,700 160 -228 3,665
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,488 3,820 160 -492 3,845
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 3,200 3,456 3,840 160 -544 3,880
Boxing, Shandong 5,800 3,200 3,488 3,860 160 -532 3,865
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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