Today (Apr. 7), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US stock markets staged rallies on Monday as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appeared to slow in several severely-hitting European countries. And there were signs that drought conditions in South America could erode Brazil’s soybean output. Hence, US soybean edged higher. But meal futures swing slightly lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today due to the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Soybean meal spot prices decline by 10-40 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2910-3200 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3200, Shandong 3190-3200, Jiangsu 3170-3230, Dongguan 2930-3100, and Guangxi 3000-3030.) Due to handsome crush margins, Brazil’s soybean shipment heading for China hit a single-month record high to reach 10 mln tonnes in March, and April shipment is also predicted to get near to that quantity. Calculated by such shipments and normal shipping time, soybean cargoes arriving at domestic ports will hit an average high of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June, according to latest data by Cofeed. Meanwhile, the demand for meat products are greatly affected as global catering services are hit severely by the pandemic. However, soybean arrivals are small in April, so many mills will halt production for soybean shortages, and soybean crush is predicted to fall further to a low level of 1.35 mln tonnes. So far, spot soybean meal stocks have fallen to a historical low of less than 170,000 tonnes in coastal mills. Hence, mills now have no spot goods for sale and set very limited quantity for delivery. This has also forced some downstream feed mills to cut down or limit production. The tight supplies in spot goods may continue till late April. Spot soybean meal prices are resilient, but prices in Shandong are too high previously and have fallen a little as distributors have much more willingness to make shipments. Short-term soybean meal prices are forecast to follow futures to adjust, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price rises today, of which it settles up 40-50 yuan/tonne at 2,280-2,390 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,280, up 50; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,320). Two Canadian enterprises’ canola exports to China suspended last year have yet to resume, Chinese Foreign Ministry said on the website last Friday night. It will see lower arrival of soybeans in April, so the downtime in crushing mills will be longer due to soybean shortage. Last week, soybean crush was only at 1.44 mln tonnes, boosting rapeseed meal market to moderately rebound. But the monthly soybean arrivals are expected to reach 9.5 mln tonnes in May and June, for the crush margins of soybean and rapeseed are considerable. And the operation rate in soyoil mills will gradually pick up since mid-April, which leads soybean meal price to decline, dragging down the rapeseed meal market. Therefore, the upward momentum of rapeseed meal will be limited even if there’s recent rebound, and the overall market is likely to fluctuate frequently. Buyers had better make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices too high.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,700-12,100 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-14,000 yuan/tonne.The outbreak of the COVID-19 has not been under control in many countries, and the Peruvian government has extended the state of emergency until April 12. Given this situation, fishing in the new season in its centre-north oceans is unable to be carried out at present. Meantime, Peruvian manufacturers are seeing lower fishmeal stocks. Hence, traders are positive about the market outlook, and some even forecast a tight prospect in fishmeal supply. However, aquaculture, in which fishmeal is used as feed, has not yet been in full swing in northern China due to capricious weather conditions. In addition, there is a lack of bulk demand from downstream feed manufacturers, as they are not willing to buy at current high prices. The subdued trade in the market is limited the upward space of fishmeal prices.Stocks at port: Huangpu 55,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 33,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,500-1,550 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,730-1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadilyat1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices decline by 20-100 yuan/tonne today. The coronavirus pandemic severely hits global catering services, impacting the demand for meats. And the demand from aquaculture has been in an off season, so the downstream demand for cottonseed meal is poor. Besides, being affected by the profit taking by buying oils and selling meals amid a surge in crude oil, meals on DCE fluctuate to drop slightly today, and spot soybean meal down by 10-40 yuan/tonne, which still drags down the cottonseed meal trading. Thus, cottonseed meal price continues falling. But cottonseed oil factories mostly have no pressure from inventories with previous contract, limiting the price declines of cottonseed meal. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price is projected to fall back with fluctuations. Buyers can stay on the sideline.