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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/8/2020

2020-04-08 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,625 3,084 150 391 2,735
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,620 3,200 3,596 3,084 150 362 2,742
Costal Shandong 5,700 3,240 3,643 3,084 150 409 2,723
Jiangsu 5,690 3,230 3,633 3,084 150 399 2,725
Guangdong 5,700 3,050 3,493 3,084 150 259 2,723
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,625 3,031 150 444 2,668
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,620 3,200 3,596 3,031 150 415 2,675
Costal Shandong 5,700 3,240 3,643 3,031 150 462 2,656
Jiangsu 5,690 3,230 3,633 3,031 150 452 2,658
Guangdong 5,700 3,050 3,493 3,031 150 312 2,656
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,682 2,974 150 558 2,524
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,620 3,200 3,652 2,974 150 528 2,532
Costal Shandong 5,700 3,240 3,700 2,974 150 576 2,511
Jiangsu 5,690 3,230 3,690 2,974 150 566 2,514
Guangdong 5,700 3,050 3,550 2,974 150 426 2,511
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,569 2,986 150 433 2,682
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,620 3,200 3,540 2,986 150 404 2,689
Costal Shandong 5,700 3,240 3,586 2,986 150 450 2,671
Jiangsu 5,690 3,230 3,576 2,986 150 440 2,673
Guangdong 5,700 3,050 3,436 2,986 150 300 2,671
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,597 3,630 150 -183 3,462
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,620 3,200 3,568 3,630 150 -212 3,469
Costal Shandong 5,700 3,240 3,614 3,630 150 -166 3,450
Jiangsu 5,690 3,230 3,604 3,630 150 -176 3,452
Guangdong 5,700 3,050 3,464 3,630 150 -316 3,450
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,800 3,380 3,632 3,700 160 -228 3,665
Dalian, Liaoning 5,650 3,230 3,488 3,820 160 -492 3,845
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,620 3,200 3,459 3,840 160 -541 3,876
Boxing, Shandong 5,800 3,200 3,488 3,860 160 -532 3,865
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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