Today (Apr. 8), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: The reference price for Argentine soybean is 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne at port today. Soybeans are not in huge supply at Shandong port at present, and domestic soybean prices still stay high. In addition, the novel coronavirus is still an uncertainty in the market. These are all bullish to the market for imported soybeans. However, due to handsome crush margins, Chinese buyers are still scooping up on soybeans in foreign markets, and soybean arrivals at domestic ports could reach an average of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June. This is a bearish factor. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to stay stable in the short term.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices are stable mainly. But some delivered prices are up 0.03 yuan/kg, for the freight rises due to vehicles shortage. There is not much surplus cottonseed, and ranchers continue purchasing cottonseed, so traders have a strong will to raise price. But oil mills are cautious in purchasing cottonseed amid falls in the price of cottonseed meal and cotton linter, which drags down cottonseed market. Therefore, short-term cottonseed price may fluctuate to adjust.

Summary: US soybean futures closed fractionally lower last night on concerns over the COVID-19. But Malaysia's main palm oil producing state of Sabah could risk losing 500,000 tonnes of crop from a 14-day blanket closure of plantations in six districts, the main growers' group warned on Tuesday. Oil futures move further higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil goes up 20-50 yuan/tonne and palm oil up 90-120 yuan/tonne in tepid trading, and soybean oil still sees some purchases at low prices. Soybean crush is predicted to decline further to 1.35 mln tonnes this week due to small soybean arrivals at ports, and the demand for packing oil and bulk oil is good, so soybean oil weekly stocks have fallen by 8.4% to 1.15 mln tonnes. People in some regions are waiting in line for picking up goods at present. Hence, the oil market is bolstered to go upward. However, in consideration of the COVID-19, the Oil World has downward revised global biodiesel production by 3.9 mln tonnes. And the demand for edible oils is also in a gloomy outlook since India has also declared a lockdown in a bid to constrain the coronavirus. In addition, Chinese importers are still purchasing soybeans from Brazil and PNW, and gross crush margins for South American soybeans still stay high at 280-374 yuan/tonne for April-July shipments.  Soybean arrivals at domestic ports could reach an average of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June. Mills are expected to pick up operation rates from mid-April, so it is suggested not to be too optimistic about the price rises or to chases after excessively high prices, but to prevent risks of frequent fluctuations.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5670-5790 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5730; Rizhao traders 5790; Zhangjiagang traders 5750; and Guangzhou traders 5670). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5040-5250 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly up by 90-120yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5250,up 120; Rizhao traders 5240, up 90; Zhangjiagang traders 5150, up 90; Guangzhou traders 5040-5060,up 90; and Xiamen 5300, up 100). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan at 6,990-7,170 yuan/tonne. (Fujian 7170; Guangdong not available; and Guangxi 6990) Tensions between China and Canada have made rapeseed crush stay at a low level in China. Besides, many mills have been idled as soybean arrivals have also been small this month, and soybean crush is predicted to decline further to only 1.35 mln tonnes this week. Moreover, soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil stocks also keep falling, since the demand for packing oil and bulk oil is good at present. However, Chinese importers are buying on soybeans due to good crush margins for South American cargoes, and soybean arrivals at domestic ports could reach an average of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June. The overall demand for vegetable oils is subdued as global catering businesses are crippling amid the pandemic, and the demand for biofuels has also fallen sharply due to the weak crude oil prices. With unstable outside markets alongside, rapeseed oil market may have limited upward space and follow future to fluctuate frequently. Buyers are suggested not to chase after excessively high prices. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil remains flat with partial rises of 50-200 yuan/tonne today. The major grower organization in Sabah State, palm oil producing area, warned on Tuesday that the 14-day full close of six local plantations may cause losses of 500,000 tonnes of crops. Today, oils on DCE continue moving higher. On the spot market, soybean oil up by 20-50 yuan/tonne and palm oil up by 90-120 yuan/tonne, seeing better trading in cottonseed oil, so the price goes up in some regions. In addition, due to the spread of coronavirus pandemic and excessive low crude oil price, Oil World cuts global biodiesel production in 2020 by 3.9 mln tonnes. Likewise, India also has taken a nationwide lockdown measure amid the pandemic. Over the uncertain prospect in edible oil demand, the upward space of oils market in China will be curbed in certain degree. Buyers had better not chase up prices too high.