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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/10/2020

2020-04-10 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840 3,250 3,677 3,105 150 422 2,716
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,240 3,673 3,105 150 418 2,711
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,280 3,703 3,105 150 448 2,713
Jiangsu 5,870 3,260 3,691 3,105 150 436 2,708
Guangdong 5,870 3,080 3,549 3,105 150 294 2,708
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840 3,250 3,677 3,052 150 475 2,649
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,240 3,673 3,052 150 471 2,644
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,280 3,703 3,052 150 501 2,646
Jiangsu 5,870 3,260 3,691 3,052 150 489 2,641
Guangdong 5,870 3,080 3,549 3,052 150 347 2,641
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840 3,250 3,736 2,994 150 592 2,501
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,240 3,732 2,994 150 588 2,496
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,280 3,761 2,994 150 617 2,499
Jiangsu 5,870 3,260 3,749 2,994 150 605 2,494
Guangdong 5,870 3,080 3,607 2,994 150 463 2,494
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840 3,250 3,619 3,012 150 457 2,672
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,240 3,614 3,012 150 452 2,667
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,280 3,644 3,012 150 482 2,670
Jiangsu 5,870 3,260 3,632 3,012 150 470 2,665
Guangdong 5,870 3,080 3,490 3,012 150 328 2,665
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840 3,250 3,648 3,630 150 -132 3,417
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,240 3,644 3,630 150 -136 3,413
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,280 3,673 3,630 150 -107 3,415
Jiangsu 5,870 3,260 3,661 3,630 150 -119 3,410
Guangdong 5,870 3,080 3,519 3,630 150 -261 3,410
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,990 3,400 3,678 3,700 160 -182 3,627
Dalian, Liaoning 5,840 3,250 3,534 3,820 160 -446 3,807
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,240 3,530 3,840 160 -470 3,828
Boxing, Shandong 5,950 3,200 3,512 3,860 160 -508 3,835
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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