Today (Apr. 10), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

 

Imported soybean: The price for Argentine soybean is 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne at port today. Soybean stocks are less than 10,000 tonnes at Shandong port now, which continues to bolster the market. However, domestic soybean prices are slightly lower on dismal demand. Moreover, Chinese importers are still buying up on Brazilian soybeans due to considerable crush margins, and soybean arrivals at domestic ports could reach an average of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June. Hence, there are still bearish factors. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to stay stable in the short term.

 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices rise by 0.01-0.4 yuan/kg. There is not much surplus gross cottonseed in the market. Meanwhile, ranchers are in need of purchasing cottonseed, so the operation rate in oil mills relatively stays at a high level. As cottonseed is in great demand, traders have a strong will to raise price. But oil mills are also cautious in purchasing cottonseed, for the market of cottonseed meal and cotton linter fluctuates to drop, which limits price rises of cottonseed. Therefore, short-term cottonseed price may go strongly with fluctuations. 

 

 

Summary: US soybean futures finished higher on Thursday on a neutral to bullish USDA report and as Brazil currency rose by 1%. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut production by 10 mln barrels per day for two months, but the volume was half below a previous rumor of 20 mln pbd. Moreover, it was said that Indonesia was likely to downgraded B30 to B25. Hence, palm oil crashed on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange yesterday. And on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, palm oil futures also decline sharply, and nearby soybean oil contract goes strengthening but the most-active contract swings to decline. In the spot market, soybean oil goes up 20-50 yuan/tonne, but palm oil goes down 90-120 yuan/tonne. The overall trading is predicted to reduce, but the trading may be good on low-level forward basis. Soybean crush is predicted to decline further to 1.35 mln tonnes this week due to few soybean vessels arriving at ports, and the demand for packing oil and bulk oil is good, so soybean oil stocks have been falling to 1.15 mln tonnes, from a high level of 1.4 mln tonnes since the Lunar New Year. People in some regions like Tianjin, East China and Guangxi are waiting in line for picking up goods at present. Hence, soybean oil market is able to maintain its strengthening trend. However, Chinese importers are still buying up on Brazilian soybeans due to considerable crush margins, and soybean arrivals at domestic ports could reach an average of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June. Global demand for vegetable oils has declined due to the spread of the novel coronavirus. Therefore, it is suggested to remain cautious about the upward space of oil market. The market has slowed down rises today and could also decline to adjust, and buyers can wait for the moment.

 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5840-5920 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5920; Rizhao traders 5920; Zhangjiagang traders 5900; and Guangzhou traders 5840-5870). 

 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5020-5200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly down by 90-120 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5200, down 90; Rizhao traders not available; Zhangjiagang traders 5110, down 120; Guangzhou traders 5020-5040, down 120; and Xiamen not available). 

 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil is stable in price today, of which it settles at 7,060-7,190 yuan/tonne. (Fujian 7190; Guangdong 7050, and Guangxi 7170.) Tensions between China and Canada made rapeseed crush remain at a low level, and rapeseed oil is also in tight supplies. And many mills are idle due to soybean shortages. Meanwhile, the demand for packing oil and bulk oil has been good as schools have gradually opened this month, thus reducing soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil stocks in China. Hence, rapeseed oil market gets supported. However, Chinese importers have been scooping up on soybeans due to considerable crush margins of South American soybeans, so that soybean arrivals at domestic ports could reach an average of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June. Besides, global demand for vegetable oils has been affected under the pandemic, and a slew of biofuels enterprises are in downtime due to weak crude oil prices. The outside markets are volatile due to the epidemic, so it is predicted that rapeseed oil market may follow futures to fluctuate frequently. Participants still need to remain cautious for the moment.

 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil steadily increases by 50-200 yuan/tonne today. The operation rate in soyoil mills is very low due to soybean shortages. But soybean oil stocks keep declining amid good demand for packing oil and bulk oil. Moreover, soybean oil on DCE moves higher in front-month contracts and up by 20-50 yuan/tonne on the spot market, leading better trading in cottonseed oil. As factories successively raise price, the short-term trend is still strong. However, the operation rate in soyoil mills is predicted to slowly pick up in the second half of April. Moreover, global demand for vegetable oil also goes down under the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, and palm oil sharply falls today, which may drag down cottonseed oil market to stop rising and start fluctuating. Buyers had better not chase up prices too high.