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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/13/2020

2020-04-13 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880 3,240 3,677 3,100 150 427 2,700
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,220 3,657 3,100 150 407 2,705
Costal Shandong 5,980 3,280 3,727 3,100 150 477 2,676
Jiangsu 5,900 3,230 3,673 3,100 150 423 2,695
Guangdong 5,900 3,000 3,491 3,100 150 241 2,695
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880 3,240 3,677 3,044 150 483 2,629
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,220 3,657 3,044 150 463 2,634
Costal Shandong 5,980 3,280 3,727 3,044 150 533 2,605
Jiangsu 5,900 3,230 3,673 3,044 150 479 2,624
Guangdong 5,900 3,000 3,491 3,044 150 297 2,624
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880 3,240 3,736 2,989 150 597 2,485
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,220 3,716 2,989 150 577 2,490
Costal Shandong 5,980 3,280 3,787 2,989 150 648 2,459
Jiangsu 5,900 3,230 3,732 2,989 150 593 2,480
Guangdong 5,900 3,000 3,550 2,989 150 411 2,480
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880 3,240 3,618 3,006 150 462 2,655
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,220 3,599 3,006 150 443 2,660
Costal Shandong 5,980 3,280 3,668 3,006 150 512 2,632
Jiangsu 5,900 3,230 3,614 3,006 150 458 2,651
Guangdong 5,900 3,000 3,432 3,006 150 276 2,651
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880 3,240 3,647 3,630 150 -133 3,408
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,220 3,628 3,630 150 -152 3,413
Costal Shandong 5,980 3,280 3,698 3,630 150 -83 3,384
Jiangsu 5,900 3,230 3,643 3,630 150 -137 3,403
Guangdong 5,900 3,000 3,462 3,630 150 -319 3,403
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,030 3,390 3,677 3,700 160 -183 3,619
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880 3,240 3,533 3,820 160 -447 3,799
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,860 3,220 3,514 3,840 160 -486 3,828
Boxing, Shandong 5,970 3,200 3,515 3,860 160 -505 3,831
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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