According to Cofeed, on the week as of Apr. 10, details of soybean stocks and soybean meal stocks and outstanding contracts in coastal regions are as follows:
Soybean: Soybean stocks continue to increase this week, as soybean crush further decline to 1.35 mln tonnes and some mills, especially in Guangxi, have seen soybean arrivals at ports. In the week as of Apr. 10, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 2,620,400 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 95,300 tonnes by 3.77% from 2,525,100 tonnes last week yet down by 34.34% from 3,991,100 tonnes of the same period last year. But soybean stocks are forecast to continue to stay relatively low as soybean imports are small in April.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Along with declining soybean crush, soybean meal stocks continue to decrease to a fresh low since 2011, the year when Cofeed began to record data. In the week ending Apr. 10, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 159,700 tonnes, down 8,100 tonnes by 4.83% from 167,800 tonnes last week and down by 76.44% from 678,100 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. With cargoes arriving at ports, soybean crush will pick up to 1.60 mln tonnes and 1.75 mln tonnes separately in the next two weeks. Soybean meal is predicted to gradually shrug off low stocks and enter into easing supply from late April. Monthly soybean arrivals at domestic ports are forecast to hit an average of nearly 10 mln tonnes from May to July, during which soybean meal will almost recover from tight supplies.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts slightly reduces this week, as soybean meal is trading sharply lower than last week. In the week as of Apr. 10, outstanding contracts in mills in domestic coastal regions hold 3,943,500 tonnes not delivered, down 381,400 tonnes by 8.82% from 4,324,900 tonnes last week yet up by 20.46% from 3,273,600 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
