Today (Apr. 13), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

 

Imported soybean: The price for Argentine soybean is 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne at port today. Soybean stocks are less than 10,000 tonnes at Shandong port now, and domestic soybean prices still stay at a high level. And imported soybeans have even entered into domestic soybean market. This continues to bolster the market. However, calculated by current soybean vessel lineups from South America to China, soybean arrivals at domestic ports are forecast to hit 9.9 mln, 9.8 mln and 9.6 mln tonnes in May, June and July, respectively. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to stay stable in the short term.

 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices steadily rise by 0.01-0.03 yuan/kg. There is not much surplus gross cottonseed in the market. Meanwhile, ranchers are in need of purchasing cottonseed, so the operation rate in oil mills relatively stays at a high level. As cottonseed is in great demand, traders have a strong will to raise price. But oil mills are also cautious in purchasing cottonseed, for the market of cottonseed meal and cotton linter continues declining, which limits the price rises of cottonseed. Therefore, short-term cottonseed price may go strongly with fluctuations. 

 

 

Summary: US market was closed for the Easter holidays last Friday. And on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, nearby soybean oil contracts go strengthening, while the most-active contract swings to decline; and palm oil futures also decline. In the spot markets, soybean oil goes up by 20-30 yuan/tonnes, but palm oil partially drops by 10-20 yuan/tonne. The trading is predicted to be tepid for spot delivery, but decent on low-level forward basis. Soybean crush fell to a low level of 1.35 mln tonnes last week, and weekly soybean oil stocks followed to decline by 11% to 1.03 mln tonnes, a 36% below a highest 1.40 mln tonnes after the Lunar New Year. Palm oil weekly stocks also dropped by 11% to 645,000 tonnes. People in some regions like Tianjin, East China and Guangxi are still waiting in line for picking up goods at present. However, Chinese importers are purchasing on Brazilian soybeans as gross crush margins still stay high at 272-367 yuan/tonne for April-July shipments. Monthly soybean cargoes arriving at ports are forecast to hit average of 9.8 mln tonnes from May to July, and soybean crush will return to a normal level of 1.75 mln tonnes next week. Meanwhile, Malaysia biggest palm oil producing state, Sabah, will allow plantations and mills that do not have any coronavirus infections to resume operations. And State of Maharashtra, India has declared to extend lockdown till the end of April, as the pandemic spreads in the country. The spreading pandemic and weak crude oil prices together overshadow the prospect in demand for vegetable oils. And there are rumors that Malaysia would postpone the fulfillment of the B20 mandate and Indonesia could downgraded B30, so palm oil market posts an obviously weaker trend today. In the short run, the oil market is predicted to follow futures to swing frequently, and buyers are suggested not to chase after high prices. 

 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5860-5980 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial rise of 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5860; Rizhao traders 5980; Zhangjiagang traders 5900; and Guangzhou traders 5860). 

 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4960-5160 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, partially down by 10-60 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5160, down 20; Rizhao traders 5150, flat; Zhangjiagang traders 5050, down 10; Guangzhou traders 4960-4980,flat; and Xiamen not available). 

 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil is stable in price today, of which it settles at 7,060-7,190 yuan/tonne. (Fujian 7190; Guangdong 7050, and Guangxi 7170.) Tensions between China and Canada made rapeseed crush remain at a low level, and rapeseed oil is also in tight supplies. Besides, soybean crush also fell to a low level of 1.35 mln tonnes last week, as many mills were idle due to material shortages. Moreover, the demand for both packing oil and bulk oil have picked up a bit recently. Last week, rapeseed oil stocks declined by 8% to 233,000 tonnes in coastal regions, and soybean oil decreased by 11% to 1.03 mln tonnes. However, crush margins for South American soybeans are handsome at present, and soybean arrivals at domestic ports are predicted to hit 9.9 mln, 9.8 mln and 9.6 mln tonnes in May, June and July, respectively. And soybean crush is predicted to return to a normal level of 1.75 mln tonnes next week. These factors may limit the upward space in oil prices. The outside markets are volatile due to the epidemic, so it is predicted that rapeseed oil market may follow futures to fluctuate frequently. Participants still need to remain cautious chasing after high prices.

 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil keeps steady with partial fluctuations of 50-100 yuan/tonne today. The operation rate in soyoil mills is very low due to soybean shortages. But soybean oil stocks keep declining amid good demand for packing oil and bulk oil. Moreover, soybean oil on DCE moves higher in front-month contracts and up by 20-80 yuan/tonne on the spot market. And cottonseed oil is basically out of stock amid better trading. However, the operation rate in soyoil mills is predicted to slowly pick up in the second half of April. Due to the widespread of COVID-19 in India, Maharashtra has extended lockdowns to the end of April. Moreover, global demand for vegetable oil is gloomy amid the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and sluggish crude oil market. Recently market rumor has it that Malaysia will delay the B20 programme and Indonesia will downgrade the B30 programme. In this case, palm oil on Dalian Commodity Exchange falls back today and partly down by 10-20 yuan/tonne on the spot market, which may drag down cottonseed oil market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed oil market will fluctuate to adjust, so buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.