Domestic soybean: Downstream buyers are cautious purchasing with current excessive price rises, so that some traders with a lack of confidence start to lower down prices. However, local farmers have little surplus in hand and purchasing bodies just releases limited quantities into the market. Moreover, some traders have bought soybeans at high cost and are thus reluctant to sell at significantly lower prices. This helps narrow down the downside space. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, domestic soybean prices is likely to fall fractionally next week.

 

Imported soybean: Chinese importers are still buying up on Brazilian soybeans due to considerable crush margins, and soybean arrivals at domestic ports could reach an average of 9.5 mln tonnes both in May and June. And domestic soybean prices are slightly lower on dismal demand. Traders are not confident enough to raise prices and slightly adjust prices at ports. However, soybean stocks continue to decline to around 8,000 tonnes at Shandong port now. The falling stocks will be a support to the market. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear,  the market for imported soybeans is predicted to stay stable in the short term.

 

 

 

 

 

Crush: Soybean arrivals at ports are small, so that mills have to continue to lower down operation rates for a lack of soybeans this week (Apr. 4-10). Hence, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,356,600 tonnes (meal 1,071,714 tonnes and oil 257,754 tonnes), down 81,800 tonnes or 5.6% from 1,438,400 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 39.07%, down 2.36 percentage points from 41.43% in the previous week. With soybean vessels heading for domestic ports, the crush will gradually pick up to 1.60 mln tonnes and 1.75 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively.

 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 42,781,114 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,084,871 tonnes or 2.47% from 43,865,985 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 20,754,700 tonnes, up 40,115 tonnes or 0.1% from 20,714,585 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

 

 

Inventory: Soybean stocks continue to increase this week, as soybean crush further decline to 1.35 mln tonnes and some mills, especially in Guangxi, have seen soybean arrivals at ports. In the week as of Apr. 10, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 2,620,400 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 95,300 tonnes by 3.77% from 2,525,100 tonnes last week yet down by 34.34% from 3,991,100 tonnes of the same period last year. But soybean stocks are forecast to continue to stay relatively low as soybean imports are small in April.

 

 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 17 cargoes with 1.106 mln tonnes this week, a total of 26 cargoes with 1.705 tonnes for April so far. The import is predicted to be 104 cargoes with 6.82 mln tonnes for April, 9.9 mln tonnes for May, 9.8 mln tonnes for June, 9.6 mln tonnes for July, 8.5 mln tonnes for August and 7.5 mln tonnes for September. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

 

 

Price: This week (Apr. 7-10), domestic soybean meal prices are higher. As of this Friday, the price settles up 10-50 yuan at 2,980-3,260 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

 

 

 

Inventory: Along with declining soybean crush, soybean meal stocks continue to decrease to a fresh low since 2011, the year when Cofeed began to record data. In the week ending Apr. 10, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 159,700 tonnes, down 8,100 tonnes by 4.83% from 167,800 tonnes last week and down by 76.44% from 678,100 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. With cargoes arriving at ports, soybean crush will pick up to 1.60 mln tonnes and 1.75 mln tonnes separately in the next two weeks. Soybean meal is predicted to gradually shrug off low stocks and enter into easing supply from late April. Monthly soybean arrivals at domestic ports are forecast to hit an average of nearly 10 mln tonnes from May to July, during which soybean meal will almost recover from tight supplies. 

 

 

 

 

 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue to decline alongside its own decent shipments and falling operation rates. In the week ending Apr. 10, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,027,650 tonnes, down 123,610 tonnes by 10.74% from 1,151,260 tonnes last week, down 370,350 tonnes by 26.49% from 1,398,000 tonnes last month, and down 317,850 tonnes by 23.62% from 1,345,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,104,550 tonnes.