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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/14/2020

2020-04-14 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,200 3,621 3,077 150 394 2,702
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,601 3,077 150 374 2,707
Costal Shandong 5,860 3,250 3,681 3,077 150 454 2,675
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,630 3,077 150 403 2,690
Guangdong 5,850 2,980 3,466 3,077 150 239 2,678
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,200 3,621 3,063 150 408 2,684
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,601 3,063 150 388 2,689
Costal Shandong 5,860 3,250 3,681 3,063 150 468 2,658
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,630 3,063 150 417 2,672
Guangdong 5,850 2,980 3,466 3,063 150 253 2,660
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,200 3,678 2,971 150 557 2,495
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,658 2,971 150 537 2,500
Costal Shandong 5,860 3,250 3,740 2,971 150 619 2,467
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,688 2,971 150 567 2,482
Guangdong 5,850 2,980 3,524 2,971 150 403 2,470
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,200 3,563 2,980 150 433 2,652
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,544 2,980 150 414 2,656
Costal Shandong 5,860 3,250 3,622 2,980 150 492 2,627
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,572 2,980 150 442 2,641
Guangdong 5,850 2,980 3,407 2,980 150 277 2,629
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,200 3,592 3,630 150 -188 3,438
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,572 3,630 150 -208 3,443
Costal Shandong 5,860 3,250 3,652 3,630 150 -128 3,413
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,601 3,630 150 -179 3,427
Guangdong 5,850 2,980 3,436 3,630 150 -344 3,415
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,900 3,350 3,624 3,700 160 -236 3,645
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,200 3,480 3,820 160 -500 3,825
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,461 3,840 160 -539 3,854
Boxing, Shandong 5,880 3,130 3,445 3,860 160 -575 3,849
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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