China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 15, 2020)

2020-04-14 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

As of this Friday (in the week ending April 10), edible palm oil stock totals 645,100 tonnes at domestic ports, down 11% from 725,000 tonnes a week earlier; down 201,500 tonnes or 23.8% from 846,600 tonnes the same period last month; down 104,200 tonnes or 14% from 749,300 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 115,650 tonnes, down 18,200 tonnes or 14% from 133,850 tonnes last week.

It still sees less arrival of palm oil this week. And domestic oils go up on the spot market this week, but palm oil rises less than soybean oil, which enlarges the price spread between them. As of this Friday, the price spread is 803 yuan/tonne, extending by 183 yuan/tonne from 620 yuan/tonne last week. Besides, oils futures also rise at home and abroad, and some buyers purchase on the dips. Accordingly, palm oil trading goes better at market lows, and the trading volume totals 32,750 tonnes this week. And edible palm oil stocks continue declining. Likewise, China’s buyers have bought not many cargoes of palm oil due to the poor import profit, so edible palm oil stocks are likely to slide in later period on the whole.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W15	W14	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W15	W14	Change
Tianjin Port	7.7	7.1	0.6	-18.90%	-49.18%	2.2	2.2	0
Hebei	0.79	1	-0.21	97.50%	12.85%	0.12	0	0.12
Shandong Port	2.85	4	-1.15	612.50%	-13.60%	0.545	0.855	-0.31
East China	20.7	23.15	-2.45	-33.87%	-18.80%	6.7	8.3	-1.6
Guangdong	27.17	30.27	-3.1	-18.11%	15.86%	1.85	1.86	-0.01
Guangxi	2.9	3.83	-0.93	33.03%	65.71%	0.15	0.17	-0.02
Fujian	2.4	3.15	-0.75	-46.70%	-52.90%	0	0	0
Total：	64.51	72.5	-7.99	-23.80%	-13.90%	11.565	13.385	-1.82

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for April this week is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) and flat from last week; that for May is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) unchanged with last week.

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (CNY/mT)	DCE (CNY/mT)	Import Margin
2020/4/7	Jun.2020	595	5073	4738	-335
2020/4/7	Aug.2020	575	4905	4738	-167
2020/4/7	Oct.2020	575	4905	4816	-89
2020/4/7	Nov.2020	575	4905	4816	-89
2020/4/7	Dec.2020	575	4905	4816	-89
2020/4/8	Jul.2020	577.5	4918	4842	-76
2020/4/8	Sep.2020	577.5	4918	4842	-76
2020/4/8	Aug.2020	575	4897	4842	-55
2020/4/9	Jun.2020	612.5	5238	4894	-344
2020/4/9	Jul.2020	587.5	5028	4894	-134
2020/4/9	Sep.2020	585	5007	4894	-113
2020/4/9	Aug.2020	585	5007	4894	-113
2020/4/9	Nov.2020	582.5	4986	4930	-56
2020/4/10	Jun.2020	595	5046	4752	-294
2020/4/10	Jul.2020	580	4920	4752	-168
2020/4/10	Sep.2020	580	4920	4752	-168
2020/4/10	Aug.2020	580	4920	4752	-168

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (CNY/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2020/4/7	0
2020/4/8	2	Jul	577	4911	1.2
2020/4/8	0	Nov	573	4868	1.2
2020/4/9	0
2020/4/10	0

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