Today (Apr. 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

 

Soybean meal: US soybean fell on Monday, as concerns over lower feed demand weighed on soybean meal prices after several meatpacking plants temporarily closed due to the novel coronavirus. Meal futures expand their early losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today as investors lessen positions. Soybean meal spot prices decline by 20-40 yuan/tonne in thin trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,940-3,230 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3180, Shandong 3150-3210, Jiangsu 3180-3230, Dongguan 2960-2980, and Guangxi 2940-2960.) Chinese buyers are purchasing Brazilian soybeans as DCE gross crushing margins still stay high at 288-385 yuan/tonne for April-July delivery, and monthly soybean arrivals at ports will average 9.8 mln tonnes from May-July; hence, domestic oil mill will gradually pick up operation rates. However, the demand for meat products has suffered a lot, for global catering businesses are crippling under the pandemic. And distributors have cut down prices more than by mills as they are more willing to make deliveries. However, soybean meal stocks are still low and mills are still limiting delivery quantity, which will help narrow down declines in soybean meal prices. Nevertheless, mills will resume soybean crush to a normal level, and DCE crushing margins for soybeans are very high at present. Hence, soybean meal will have downside potential once tight supplies ease. Buyers can wait for the moment.

 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price decreases today, of which it settles down 30-50 yuan/tonne at 2,290-2,410 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,310, down 40; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,360, down 30). The crush margins of soybean futures are still considerable, attracting Chinese buyers to continue the purchase. And the arrival of soybeans from May to July initially forecasts as high as 9.9 mln tonnes, 9.8 mln tonnes and 9.6 mln tonnes respectively. In this case, the operation rate in domestic crushing mills will gradually pick up since the second half of the month, and soybean crush may rally to 1.75 mln tonnes next week. On the other hand, the demand outlook in the second quarter is not optimistic amid the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic around the world. Hence, rapeseed meal price is dragged down by these factors. Nevertheless, rapeseed crush remains at low levels, seeing inventory shortage in rapeseed meal and soybean meal. This is favorable to limiting price declines of rapeseed meal, and buyers can wait and see.

 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,100 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 yuan/tonne. Aquaculture has just got started in both northern and southern China, so the overall consumption of fishmeal is limited. In addition, downstream buyers are cautious now as fishmeal is at high prices. Hence, port trading remains thin at present. However, President of Peru declared to extend the state of emergency till April 26th, as the pandemic is still sweeping all the world. It seems to be difficult for Peruvian fishermen to fix a date for starting in the new season. Moreover, port stocks available for sales are low, so that traders are stalling sales. On the whole, dominated by bullish factors, fishmeal market is predicted to maintain its strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 48,900 tonnes, Fuzhou 27,800 tonnes, Shanghai 29,400 tonnes, Tianjin 1,100 tonnes, Dalian 8,960 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,010 tonnes and 4,330 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,470 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720 USD/tonne. 

 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mainly keep steady but rise by 20 yuan/tonne in some regions due to low inventories. The high price of cottonseed, coupled with low stocks of spot soybean meal lead cottonseed meal manufacturers to offer firmly. However, the coronavirus pandemic severely hits global catering services, impacting the demand for meats. And the demand from aquaculture has been in an off season, so downstream demand is sluggish, while cottonseed meal supply is stable. In addition, some meat-packing plants in U.S. suspend the operation amid the coronavirus pandemic, and soybean meal on CBOT declines among grow concerns about demand for poultry feed. And US soybeans closed down last night. As a result, meals on DCE fall back after low opens, and spot soybean meal down by 20-40 yuan/tonne. Thus, cottonseed meal market is limited and weak in trading. Likewise, the operation rate China’s soybean crushing mills will gradually pick up. Once the tight supply is eased, the risk of falls in cottonseed meal will increase.