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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/15/2020

2020-04-15 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,240 3,652 3,055 150 447 2,674
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,601 3,055 150 396 2,679
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,250 3,675 3,055 150 470 2,655
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,630 3,055 150 425 2,662
Guangdong 5,850 2,960 3,450 3,055 150 245 2,650
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,240 3,652 3,041 150 461 2,656
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,601 3,041 150 410 2,661
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,250 3,675 3,041 150 484 2,637
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,630 3,041 150 439 2,644
Guangdong 5,850 2,960 3,450 3,041 150 259 2,632
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,240 3,710 2,975 150 585 2,500
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,658 2,975 150 533 2,505
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,250 3,734 2,975 150 609 2,480
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,688 2,975 150 563 2,487
Guangdong 5,850 2,960 3,508 2,975 150 383 2,475
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,240 3,595 2,960 150 485 2,627
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,544 2,960 150 434 2,631
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,250 3,617 2,960 150 507 2,608
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,572 2,960 150 462 2,615
Guangdong 5,850 2,960 3,391 2,960 150 281 2,604
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,240 3,623 3,630 150 -157 3,438
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,572 3,630 150 -208 3,443
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,250 3,646 3,630 150 -134 3,420
Jiangsu 5,800 3,200 3,601 3,630 150 -179 3,427
Guangdong 5,850 2,960 3,421 3,630 150 -359 3,415
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,900 3,390 3,656 3,700 160 -204 3,645
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,240 3,512 3,820 160 -468 3,825
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,461 3,840 160 -539 3,854
Boxing, Shandong 5,880 3,130 3,445 3,860 160 -575 3,849
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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