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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/16/2020

2020-04-16 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,230 3,644 3,052 150 442 2,670
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,601 3,052 150 399 2,675
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,240 3,671 3,052 150 469 2,646
Jiangsu 5,900 3,180 3,633 3,052 150 431 2,634
Guangdong 5,900 2,960 3,459 3,052 150 257 2,634
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,230 3,644 3,038 150 456 2,653
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,601 3,038 150 413 2,657
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,240 3,671 3,038 150 483 2,628
Jiangsu 5,900 3,180 3,633 3,038 150 445 2,616
Guangdong 5,900 2,960 3,459 3,038 150 271 2,616
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,230 3,702 2,972 150 580 2,496
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,658 2,972 150 536 2,501
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,240 3,730 2,972 150 608 2,471
Jiangsu 5,900 3,180 3,692 2,972 150 570 2,458
Guangdong 5,900 2,960 3,518 2,972 150 396 2,458
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,230 3,587 2,960 150 477 2,627
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,544 2,960 150 434 2,631
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,240 3,613 2,960 150 503 2,604
Jiangsu 5,900 3,180 3,574 2,960 150 464 2,592
Guangdong 5,900 2,960 3,400 2,960 150 290 2,592
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,230 3,615 3,630 150 -165 3,438
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,572 3,630 150 -208 3,443
Costal Shandong 5,850 3,240 3,642 3,630 150 -138 3,415
Jiangsu 5,900 3,180 3,604 3,630 150 -176 3,403
Guangdong 5,900 2,960 3,430 3,630 150 -350 3,403
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,900 3,380 3,648 3,700 160 -212 3,645
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750 3,230 3,504 3,820 160 -476 3,825
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,730 3,180 3,461 3,840 160 -539 3,854
Boxing, Shandong 5,850 3,120 3,432 3,860 160 -588 3,855
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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