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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China -- 4/17/2020

2020-04-17 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,740 3,210 3,627 3,038 150 439 2,655
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,700 3,170 3,587 3,038 150 399 2,665
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,220 3,652 3,038 150 464 2,633
Jiangsu 5,850 3,180 3,624 3,038 150 436 2,628
Guangdong 5,850 2,950 3,442 3,038 150 254 2,628
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, May.  shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,740 3,210 3,627 3,023 150 454 2,636
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,700 3,170 3,587 3,023 150 414 2,646
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,220 3,652 3,023 150 479 2,614
Jiangsu 5,850 3,180 3,624 3,023 150 451 2,609
Guangdong 5,850 2,950 3,442 3,023 150 269 2,609
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Apr. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,740 3,210 3,684 2,931 150 603 2,447
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,700 3,170 3,644 2,931 150 563 2,457
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,220 3,710 2,931 150 629 2,424
Jiangsu 5,850 3,180 3,682 2,931 150 601 2,419
Guangdong 5,850 2,950 3,501 2,931 150 420 2,419
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,740 3,210 3,569 2,943 150 476 2,607
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,700 3,170 3,530 2,943 150 437 2,616
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,220 3,593 2,943 150 500 2,587
Jiangsu 5,850 3,180 3,565 2,943 150 472 2,582
Guangdong 5,850 2,950 3,384 2,943 150 291 2,582
 
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,740 3,210 3,598 3,630 150 -182 3,441
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,700 3,170 3,559 3,630 150 -221 3,450
Costal Shandong 5,830 3,220 3,622 3,630 150 -158 3,420
Jiangsu 5,850 3,180 3,594 3,630 150 -186 3,415
Guangdong 5,850 2,950 3,413 3,630 150 -367 3,415
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,890 3,360 3,630 3,700 160 -230 3,647
Dalian, Liaoning 5,740 3,210 3,486 3,820 160 -494 3,827
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,700 3,170 3,448 3,840 160 -552 3,860
Boxing, Shandong 5,820 3,120 3,427 3,860 160 -593 3,861
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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